| 基于SIR-EGM模型的复杂网络舆情传播与预警机制研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭程,祁凯,黎冰雪.基于SIR-EGM模型的复杂网络舆情传播与预警机制研究[J].情报科学,2020,38(3):145-153. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭程 祁凯 黎冰雪 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨师范大学管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目"基于用户行为分析的网络舆论引导机制研究"(15BGL157);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目"大数据环境下突发公共危机事件风险识别及网络社会治理研究"(17GLB025);哈尔滨师范大学研究生学术创新项目"大数据环境下网民情感导向对网络群体极化的作用机制研究"(HSDSSCX2019-60)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的/意义】负面情绪导向的舆情传播严重威胁到我国的网络空间安全和社会和谐稳定,而"不完全"的复杂网络系统也为政府监管带来了挑战。因此厘清舆情传播特征实现精确预警具有较强的现实性与实践性。【方法/过程】基于SIR传染病模型与EGM灰色预测模型,提出一种实现舆情预警与舆情防控模型,并利用python挖掘到的政务微博历史数据进行模型模拟与检验。【结果/结论】结果表明:舆情传播过程中,易感染类网民占比会随着时间演化而不断减小;传播阈值与易感染类网民占比间的大小关系能够预示舆情演化趋势;政务微博通过及时互动能够转移网民情绪,起到一定舆情导控效用。
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| 关 键 词： | SIR-EGM模型 复杂网络 舆情传播 舆情预警 |
Communication and Early Warning Mechanism of Public Opinion in Complex Networks Based on SIR-EGM Model |
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| PENG Cheng,QI Kai,LI Bing-xue.Communication and Early Warning Mechanism of Public Opinion in Complex Networks Based on SIR-EGM Model[J].Information Science,2020,38(3):145-153. |
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| Authors: | PENG Cheng QI Kai LI Bing-xue |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Management,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China) |
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| Abstract: | 【Purpose/significance】Negative emotion-oriented public opinion transmission seriously threatens China’s cyberspace security and social harmony and stability, the "Incomplete" complex network system also brings challenges to government supervision. Therefore, it is very realistic and practical to clarify the characteristics of public opinion and realize accurate warning.【Process/method】Based on the SIR epidemic disease model and EGM gray prediction model, a model for public opinion early warning and public opinion prevention and control was proposed, and the government affairs microblog historical data mined by python was used to simulate and verify the model.【Result/conclusion】The results show that during the process of public opinion transmission, the proportion of susceptible Internet users will continue to decrease over time;the relationship between the threshold of transmission and the proportion of susceptible Internet users can predict the evolution of public opinion;through timely interaction, government affairs microblog can transfer netizens’ emotions and play a certain role in guiding and controlling public opinions. |
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| Keywords: | SIR-EGM model complex network public opinion communication public opinion early warning |
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