共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 187 毫秒
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利用指数平滑法的有关内容，给出相应的数学模型。然后，运用一次指数平滑法对漯河市科技成果产出进行预测，结果显示，该方法的实际应用是令人满意的。 相似文献
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指数平滑预测和离散灰色模型是两类不同特点的预测方法.考虑到单项预测方法的局限性,提出了利用指数平滑预测和离散灰色模型的统计组合预测方法;进一步利用相关系数这一相关性指标确定组合预测模型的权系数;最后通过一个应用实例分析了统计组合预测方法的预测精度,并说明了该方法的有效性和可行性. 相似文献
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指数平滑法是经济预测的一种常用方法,三次指数平滑主要用于预测呈抛物线趋势的时间序列数据。根据19＂／8年至2010年山东省职工年平均工资数据,利用三次指数平滑法预测2011年至2035年的山东省职工年平均工资。 相似文献
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在指数平滑法的基础上,提出利用多次指数平滑法和不同平滑系数对经济总量的各个分量预测,从中找出一个最优解作为总量的预测值的方法,它能够直观地反映经济总量与经济分量之间的关系和各自的变化趋势。 相似文献
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随着软件规模的日益增大,软件可靠性对软件质量保证起着举足轻重的作用.为了更好地对软件可靠性进行预测,本文首先对常用的指数平滑模型——Holt模型和阻尼Holt模型进行分析,然后根据软件可靠性准则误差平方和(SSE)建立数学模型,并分别计算出最小SSE值对应的最优的平滑系数.实验表明采用Holt模型进行软件可靠性预测的精度较高,且阻尼Holt模型的预测结果优于Holt模型,预测结果从平滑系数的经验选取法和软件可靠性的PRR准则上都得到了验证.由此得出结论,将Holt和阻尼Holt指数平滑模型用于软件可靠性的预测有很高的拟合度. 相似文献
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吴翠芳 《廊坊师范学院学报(自然科学版)》2011,11(1)
介绍指数平滑法,以某地区出入境人数为实例,进行三次指数平滑分析,对未来的趋势做出较为准确的判断预测,并对结果进行分析和评价,为边防决策提供依据. 相似文献
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指数平滑法就是将历史统计数据消除统计数据的起伏波动状况,使其规则化,以便把握事物发展的方向和趋势的方法,根据近几年黄山风景区旅游营业总收入数据分析,利用三次指数平滑法预测2010年和2011年黄山风景区旅游营业总收入将达到12.3906亿元和13.2809亿元. 相似文献
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INTRODUCTIONTimeseriespredictionhasbeensuccessfullyusedinseveralapplicationareas,suchasmeteo rologicalforecasting (Andrei,1972 ) ,loadpre dictioninpowersystem (OuandLi,1999) ,marketprediction (Gilesetal.,1997) ,net worktrafficprediction (Edwardsetal.,1997… 相似文献
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Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteorological forecasting, market
prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc., and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting
time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes
of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series
prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method
dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various
data sets.
Project (No. 2001AA112030) supported by the National Hi-Tech Development Program (863) of China 相似文献
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科学准确地预测铁路客运量是制定铁路网规划的基础。以全国铁路客运量的历史数据为基础,采用灰色GM（1,1）模型和三次指数平滑模型进行组合优化,建立了基于IOWGA（Induced Ordered Weighted Geometric Averaging）算子的组合预测模型,并对组合预测模型进行了检验,检验结果表明,组合预测模型是有效的、可靠的,具有较高的精度,可对我国的铁路客运量进行预测。最后利用所建立的预测模型预测了2008年--2010年我国铁路客运量。 相似文献
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在基于固定窗口宽度滑动窗口模型的基础上。提出了一种基于回归参数存储的预测模型,该模型设置了计算区、数据区和参数区。计算区用于获得最近一个滑动窗口中的数据。数据区用于接收新数据,参数区存储最近若干组滑动窗口数据所计算得到的线性回归参数值,作为计算预测结果的原始数据集。按照这种模型的处理思路。提出了一种基于数据平滑技术的回归预测算法,随着窗口的滑动。对数据区中的数据进行回归分析,获得前面若干组滑动窗口数据的回归函数并存入参数区中,检验当前窗口中数据获得的回归函数预测效果。实验分析表明。通过修正当前回归函数的参数。可以使预测函数的预测精度得到很大程度的提高。 相似文献
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GM(1,1) and GM(1,1) rolling models derived from grey system theory were estimated using time-series data from projection studies by National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). An out-of-sample forecasting competition between the two grey prediction models and exponential smoothing used by NCES was conducted for education expenditure and school enrollment under the assumption that grey prediction was as promising as NCES's forecasting technique in dealing with univariate time-series data while some other determinants of the variables under examination were excluded. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to verify that the GM(1,1), and GM(1,1) rolling models would provide forecasts that were at least as accurate as the NCES's approach to extrapolating education expenditure and school enrollment. The findings revealed that the forecasting efficiency of GM(1,1) rolling model was superior to exponential smoothing and GM(1,1) model. The results can offer valuable insights and provide a basis for further research in model building for short-term estimation on educational statistics. 相似文献
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SPSS预测模型在商场中的应用 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
徐林 《宁波职业技术学院学报》2005,9(2):44-47
探讨了SPSS 12统计软件包中回归、指数平滑及ARIMA(自回归求和移动平均)等时间序列分析模块的建模及预测方法。根据金星商场1997年～2005年，1～12月的销售历史资料，建立对数模型、指数平滑模型和ARIMA乘积模型，并对三的预测结果进行比较分析，给出了平均相对误差。得出ARIMA乘积模型误差最小，它适于对有趋势性和周期性的观察数据进行预测。SPSS12统计软件包时间序列分析模块操作方便，在商场统计预测中有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
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INTRODUCTION Consumers’ acceptance of fresh or processedapples is the ultimate goal of apple breeders, foodscientists and supermarket managers. Internal qualityassessment has focused on two major objectives:removal of fruit with internal defects and taste selec-tion. Three major parameters including sugar content,acidity and firmness have to be taken into account todetermine the internal quality and the taste of an apple.Near infrared spectroscopy has been used to measureseveral properti… 相似文献
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To develop nondestructive acidity prediction for intact Fuji apples, the potential of Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) method with fiber optics in interactance mode was investigated. Interactance in the 800 nm to 2619 nm region was measured for intact apples, harvested from early to late maturity stages. Spectral data were analyzed by two multivariate calibration techniques including partial least squares (PLS) and principal component regression (PCR) methods. A total of 120 Fuji apples were tested and 80 of them were used to form a calibration data set. The influences of different data preprocessing and spectra treatments were also quantified. Calibration models based on smoothing spectra were slightly worse than that based on derivative spectra, and the best result was obtained when the segment length was 5 nm and the gap size was 10 points. Depending on data preprocessing and PLS method, the best prediction model yielded correlation coefficient of determination (r^2) of 0.759,low root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.0677, low root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.0562. The results indicated the feasibility of FT-NIR spectral analysis for predicting apple valid acidity in a nondestructive way. 相似文献
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鲍富元 《洛阳师范学院学报》2011,30(7):126-128
邮轮旅游是国际旅游业中增长幅度较大的业务之一,三亚的邮轮旅游自凤凰岛国际邮轮码头投入使用以来,发展也步入快车道。通过三次指数平滑法对三亚旅游市场的总游客人数进行预测,并在此基础上结合国际经验中邮轮游客占总游客量的比率,进一步估测三亚邮轮旅游的游客市场规模。预测显示三亚邮轮旅游市场的发展潜力巨大,增长速度较快,为深入推动三亚邮轮旅游市场发展提供了保证。 相似文献