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1.
In recent years, a number of new techniques have been developed—includingdeliberative polls and educational surveys—that attemptto gather measures of public opinion that is of higher quality(i.e. better informed or more deliberative) than that recordedin typical mass opinion surveys. This paper addresses severalgeneral sets of questions. What is meant by ‘quality’in public opinion? What criteria can be enumerated by whichthe quality of public opinion can be assessed? In grapplingwith these questions, the paper argues that conceptions of qualityin public opinion are inextricably bound to broader conceptionsof quality in democratic decision making, a complex processinvolving multiple phases and collective participants. In addition,a number of important contradictions and ambiguities underlieconceptions of quality in public opinion. 相似文献
2.
During the rewriting of its program in the early 1980s, theRassemblement pour la République (RPR) carried out anumber of opinion surveys. The person in charge of this wasnot a member of the inner leadership circle; he warned the partyleader, Jacques Chirac, that themes forming a coherent ‘liberal’program for the transformation of the relationship between citizens,state, and the economy, were not popular with public opinion,which remained attached to progressive taxation and a comprehensivesocial welfare system. The party leadership ignored these warnings.Rather than attempting to align their policies with voter aspirations,their principal use of political communications techniques aimedat improving their leader's image. The person in charge of thiswork was a stranger to politics whose understanding of the waycultural or political attitudes are changed led him to interpretvery fatalistically the chances of influencing election outcomesby communications techniques. His methods were treated withfrank skepticism by party communications colleagues, his client'spersonality was particularly unamenable to his efforts, andhis one successful initiative—the rejuvenation of theexecutive committee—was operated at the cost of a rowin the party. In the case of the RPR, opinion research seemsto have played no role at all in an important party policy review,the causes of which should be sought elsewhere. 相似文献
3.
This paper examines the results of studies in Britain and Franceon the views of the two peoples towards public opinion surveys: — their experience of surveys — attitudes towards the concept of sample surveys — the accuracy of sample surveys — the publication of polls during election campaigns — exposure to news information — interest in survey data The results in the two countries were, to a substantial degree,similar and showed an underlying positive attitude towards publicopinion surveys. There are, however, a number of points to bearin mind, where more public relations and more public informationis required to improve public awareness of, and public acceptanceof, opinion surveys. 相似文献
4.
The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices. 相似文献
5.
COPING WITH FREEDOM AND UNCERTAINTY: PUBLIC OPINION IN HUNGARY, POLAND, AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA 1989-1992
For the first time in more than four decades, Central and EastEuropeans can openly voice their opinion about everything fromthe price of bread to the performance of the government. Publicopinion has become a dynamic factor in the decision-making processof the new governments of Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakiaand will play an important role in determining what kind ofpost-communist societies develop in these countries. In an effortto explore public sentiment about what kind of society theywant to develop, we analyze results from 14 nationwide, representativepublic opinion polls commissioned by the United States InformationAgency's Office of Research between June 1989 and January 1992in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. After tracing trendsin public opinion over this period, we look at some aspectsof the political culture in these countries. We then reporton our preliminary attempts to understand the determinants ofindividual preferences for either a society that emphasizesindividual freedom and responsibility (‘individual opportunities’society) or one in which the state assumes responsibility forassuring public welfare (‘state guarantees’ society). 相似文献
6.
Noelle-Neumann's work on the spiral of silence (1974, 1977,1984) has been one of the most significant theoretical developmentsin public opinion research of the past quarter-century. Thetheory is well known among public opinion researchers, and anumber of research efforts have been directed toward examiningspecific parts of the theory. However, the theory is difficultto test, incorporating psychological, social-psychological andsociological variables, including psychological variables andsweeping changes in the social climate of opinion (cf. Noelle-Neumann1984). This study investigated the role of opinion thresholds, socialgroups and weighing of others' opinions in opinion expression.Using Krassa's (1988) computer simulation and modificationsof Noelle-Neumann's (1974) spiral of silence as a base, we testseveral theoretical modifications to the spiral of silence modelusing data gathered from people living in or near six nationalparks in Canada. Primary interest is on the ability of opinionthresholds, social group and weighing of others' opinions topredict the expression of opinion for particular issues. 相似文献
7.
While previous research has demonstrated that representationsof opinion distributions can impact individual-level judgements,the perceptual processes that yield estimates of that opinionare not yet fully explored. This study focuses exclusively onthe association between personal opinion and perceived publicopinion, examining its magnitude across several political figuresand within multivariate models of opinion perception. Moreover,the association between affective intensity toward a politicalfigure and perceived discrepancy with public opinion is alsoinvestigated. Overall, findings highlight a strong relationshipbetween personal and perceived public sentiment. While occasionallysignificant, the effects of group attachments are relativelymodest. Additionally, findings suggest that as affective orientationtoward political figures advances from neutrality to highlyfavorable or unfavorable, perceived discrepancies with publicsentiment rise considerably. Implications and future researchconsiderations are discussed in some detail. 相似文献
8.
Kepplinger Hans Mathias; Donsbach Wolfgang; Brosius Hans-Bernd; Staab Joachim Friedrich 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1989,1(4):326-342
This study investigates the relationship between media coverageof Helmut Kohl in seven leading German print media and the opinionsof the German general public about the politician between 1975and 1984. For the content analysis evaluative assessments aboutHelmut Kohl on six different dimensions of characteristics werecoded. The analysis of public opinion is based on 72 representativesurveys in which respondents expressed their evaluations ofthe politician. The two time series were compared by means ofcross-lagged correlations. The whole period was first examinedwith aggregations of three-months-intervals; then closer attentionwas paid to the time period since Helmut Kohl took office aschancellor on the basis of monthly intervals. In both cases,the results show that evaluation shifts in the media precedesimilar evaluation shifts in public opinion with a time lagof about three to six months for the whole period of investigation,and a somewhat shorter time lag for the time of his chancellorship.Evaluation shifts in the political magazines Der Spiegel andStern were more closely related to public opinion than evaluationshifts in the national dailies. 相似文献
9.
This study employed a four-fold typology of opinion groups depictingthe relationships between minority–majority status andaccurate–inaccurate perception of the climate of opinionabout the 1990 prediction of a destructive earthquake for themid-United States New Madrid Seismic Zone. Data were collectedfrom 629 residents of the area where the earthquake was predictedto occur. Two frameworks were employed to define the climateof opinion to take into account two key variables that influencepublic response to earthquake predictions: the predication'sbelievability and its importance. Accurate perceptions of theclimate of opinion were differntiated from inaccurate perceptionsbased on more frequent media use and the confidence respondentsfelt about protecting themselves from potential earthquake damages.Inaccurate perceptions of the climate of opinion are differentiatednot by more extensive media use and discussions, but by thecrediability placed on the information from the news media anddiscussions, as well as the perceived influence of these informationsources. 相似文献
10.
Data from seven Swedish Election Studies were analyzed to testthree hypotheses about aggregate public opinion. Various facetsof public opinion, including a balance measure of direction,five measures of intensity, percentage don't know, and percentageneutral, were found to be highly stable across time. In mostinstances, the majority was more intense than the minority.Changes in public opinion could not be predicted from the relativeintensity of the majority and the minority in the election threeyears before. 相似文献
11.
An analysis of a survey material with 14,000 respondents fromNorway 1984–5 shows a U-shaped relationship between positionon a political left–right scale and activity to influenceothers through personal communication, with the exception ofa sharp drop at the extreme left. Various hypotheses attemptingto explain this pattern of a left dip are tested and refuted:1) it does not seem to be the result of sampling or measurementerror, 2) it is only to a limited extent explained by the socialcomposition of the extreme left, 3) it is not due to the partycomposition of the extreme left, but exists within all partiesof the left, 4) it is not a symptom of a general withdrawalfrom political activity, the extreme left does not lag behindin membership in parties or local elected councils, 5) it isnot part of a general withdrawal from personal communication,there is no left dip in the proportion of opinion leaders invarious non-political areas. Trend data show a changing patternfor the relationship between opinion leadership and politicalextremism from 1973 to 1989, which corresponds to changes inelectoral support for parties of the left and right in Norway. 相似文献
12.
Greece became an EEC member in 1981, following a parliamentaryvote in the then New Democracy (conservative)–controlledparliament. Opinion polls indicated though that were a referendumheld at the time, membership would have been rejected, as thegovernment had lost its popular support (and lost power in thecourse of that year) and an across-the-board anti-western majorityhad emerged in a country whose people's national identity wasfirst defined during and as a defense against the crusades.Ten years later, there exists in Greece a very large consensusin favor of EEC membership which includes even the communistleft, at least programmatically. The spectacular, and unprecedentedamong Community countries, pro-EEC conversion is the subjectof this paper. First, using the European Commission's Eurobarometerand Eurodim's Helleno-barometer data, the evolution of Greekpublic opinion towards the EEC is documented. Secondly, thetrend data in the various voting groups show that this conversionis basically the result of the transformation of the socialistelectorate from anti-EEC to pro-EEC, but with a lag behind thesimilar change in the party's (PASOK) policies during its eight-yearrule (1981–9). Thirdly, evidence is provided that anti-westernismhas not died out in Greece, but that it has both mellowed andbecome ‘selective’. So, we conclude that the pro-EECconversion was not the result of some general ‘Westernization’of Greek public opinion, but the outcome of a ‘learningexperience’: during their country's ten-year EEC membership,the Greeks discovered that the benefits from this internationalcommitment far outweighed the costs. In fact, it is argued thatthe pro-EEC conversion of Greek public opinion has contributedto the mellowing of its anti-westernism: whereas the crusadeswere instrumental in cutting the Greeks from Europe, the EECappears now the vehicle of their reintegration into a worldin whose development they have historically played a major role. 相似文献
13.
In this paper we present the results of a longitudinal studyin public opinion on unemployed people during the period 1975–87.The study relates to 1) opinions on the extent to which socialsecurity laws are abused, 2) the degree of condemnation of suchabuse, and 3) the image projected on the unemployed. In theyears up to 1980 public opinion was rather negative, but a strikingimprovement accompanied the marked increase in unemploymentrates during the early 1980s. As unemployment dropped duringthe second half of the 1980s public opinion regarding the unemployedseemed to deteriorate again. 相似文献
14.
Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action. 相似文献
15.
The Australian High Court's decision on the Mabo case, allowingnative title to Aboriginal Australians, became the major politicalissue during the second half of 1993. The Labor party's championingof this issue is suggestive of a fundamental change in Australianpolitics as predicted by ‘new politics’ theoristssuch as Ronald Inglehart. This paper examines the formationof opinions on the Mabo with particular reference to new politics.Several theoretical approaches to the formation of attitudesto political issues are examined. These comprise the new politics,political partisanship, nonattitudes, rational choice, asttitudinalpredispositions, and group socialization approaches. Littlesupport was found for the standard postmaterialist/materialistcleavage, although aspects of the new politics thesis were supportedas were aspects of the other approaches. In the light of thesefindings we outline a model of public opinion incorporatingelements of each approach. 相似文献
16.
Recent studies have suggested that agenda-setting may influencenot only what we think about, but also what we think. This studyexamines the correlations between the salience of one issue(the federal budget deficit) and public knowledge, opinion,and behavior, using fall 1988 survey data. It finds statisticallysignificant correlations between issue salience and knowledgeabout the deficit issue, strength and direction of opinion regardingone possible solution to the issue, and political behavior relatedto the issue. These correlations remain statistically significantin multiple regression analyses where demographics and mediaexposure and attention measures are controlled simultaneouslyand in hierarchical blocks. Taken together, the findings reportedhere suggest that increased salience of the deficit issue wasaccompanied by increased knowledge of its possible causes andsolutions, stronger opinions, less likelihood of taking a neutralposition, and more likelihood of participating in politics throughsuch behavior as signing petitions, voting, attending meetings,and writing letters. 相似文献
17.
LIFE AND DEATH AS PUBLIC POLICY: CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AND ABORTION IN AMERICAN POLITICAL OPINION 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent decisions of the US Supreme Court, in returning to theissues of capital punishment and abortion, have simultaneouslyexpanded the potential for public opinion on these issues tohave an impact on public policy. This article considers thedistribution of the available combinations of attitudes towardissues of the institutionalized taking (or preservation) ofhuman life, both in the general American public and in subgroupswhich combine these opinions in distinctive fashion. These patternsare then compared to attitudes among partisan political activists,suggesting a further set of recurring, élite-mass tensions.Finally, the resulting tensions and cross-pressures are examinedfor their relationship to the presidential vote in 1984 and1980. 相似文献
18.
The first polling organization in Eastern Europe was set upin the late 1950s in Warsaw. It did not happen accidentally;Poland had a long tradition of social research reaching backto the early 1920s. After the Stalinist period of the early1950s these traditions were continued by a new generation ofresearchers. This paper analyzes the development of opinionresearch centers and progress in the area of methodology. Twoproblems, very important for public opinion research in Polandas well as in the other East European countries, are stressedin the article: the complex relations between opinion pollingand political circumstances, and the scientific debates focusedon the reliability and accuracy of the survey findings. 相似文献
19.
图书馆如何为地方政府提供媒体舆情的监察与分析服务 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在资讯时代,掌握媒体舆情可以帮助地方政府了解社情民意,进行科学决策。该文分析了地方政府对媒体舆情掌控的需求,并结合广州大学图书馆为地方政府部门开展媒体舆情信息服务的具体实践,探讨图书馆如何构建面向地方政府开展媒体舆情监察与分析信息服务的机制。 相似文献
20.
Using a variety of public opinion sources, this article examinesAmerican attitudes toward the Soviet Union. It establishes thatAmericans are basically wary of the Soviet Union, and that thisattitude is largely based on Americans' reactions to Sovietbehavior. Furthermore, the data suggest that Americans favorfirmness in dealing with the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, Americansexpress faith in having dialogue with the Soviets and want theirgovernment to be engaged in negotiations. The limited knowledgeAmericans have of the Soviet Union and their reliance on televisionfor news of that country make American opinion susceptible tochange. Indeed, some American attitudes about the Soviets havechanged coincident with Gorbachev's ascension to power and theSoviet-US rapproachment. These findings reject the notion thatAmerican public opinion is capricious and volatile, having noplace in foreign policy formation. Rather, they suggest thatAmerican attitudes have been reasonable, responding to eventsin what would appear to be a logical manner, and that US foreignpolicy makers would be wise to consider American public opinionin their deliberations. 相似文献