共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Adam E. Wyse 《Educational Measurement》2017,36(4):16-27
This article illustrates five different methods for estimating Angoff cut scores using item response theory (IRT) models. These include maximum likelihood (ML), expected a priori (EAP), modal a priori (MAP), and weighted maximum likelihood (WML) estimators, as well as the most commonly used approach based on translating ratings through the test characteristic curve (i.e., the IRT true‐score (TS) estimator). The five methods are compared using a simulation study and a real data example. Results indicated that the application of different methods can sometimes lead to different estimated cut scores, and that there can be some key differences in impact data when using the IRT TS estimator compared to other methods. It is suggested that one should carefully think about their choice of methods to estimate ability and cut scores because different methods have distinct features and properties. An important consideration in the application of Bayesian methods relates to the choice of the prior and the potential bias that priors may introduce into estimates. 相似文献
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Bayesian methods incorporate model parameter information prior to data collection. Eliciting information from content experts is an option, but has seen little implementation in Bayesian item response theory (IRT) modeling. This study aims to use ethical reasoning content experts to elicit prior information and incorporate this information into Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation. A six‐step elicitation approach is followed, with relevant details at each stage for two IRT items parameters: difficulty and guessing. Results indicate that using content experts is the preferred approach, rather than noninformative priors, for both parameter types. The use of a noninformative prior for small samples provided dramatically different results when compared to results from content expert–elicited priors. The WAMBS (When to worry and how to Avoid the Misuse of Bayesian Statistics) checklist is used to aid in comparisons. 相似文献
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对两混合正态分布的参数估计问题进行了研究,在传统的极大似然估计的基础上运用EM算法来求解参数估计.首先给出了EM算法的基本原理,然后针对两混合正态分布推出了参数估计的迭代公式,最后用例子验证了参数估计的可靠性. 相似文献
4.
Sarah Depaoli 《Structural equation modeling》2013,20(2):239-252
Within Bayesian estimation, prior distributions are placed on model parameters and these distributions can take on many different levels of informativeness. Although much of the research conducted within this estimation framework uses what are called diffuse (or noninformative) priors, there are certain models and modeling circumstances where it is more optimal to use what are referred to as informative priors. This study focuses on the latter situation and examines the effects of inaccurate informative priors on the growth parameters within the context of growth mixture modeling. Overall, results indicated that growth mixture modeling is relatively robust to the use of inaccurate mean hyperparameters for the growth parameters, as long as the variance hyperparameters are somewhat large. 相似文献
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In psychological research, available data are often insufficient to estimate item factor analysis (IFA) models using traditional estimation methods, such as maximum likelihood (ML) or limited information estimators. Bayesian estimation with common-sense, moderately informative priors can greatly improve efficiency of parameter estimates and stabilize estimation. There are a variety of methods available to evaluate model fit in a Bayesian framework; however, past work investigating Bayesian model fit assessment for IFA models has assumed flat priors, which have no advantage over ML in limited data settings. In this paper, we evaluated the impact of moderately informative priors on ability to detect model misfit for several candidate indices: posterior predictive checks based on the observed score distribution, leave-one-out cross-validation, and widely available information criterion (WAIC). We found that although Bayesian estimation with moderately informative priors is an excellent aid for estimating challenging IFA models, methods for testing model fit in these circumstances are inadequate. 相似文献
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Contamination of responses due to extreme and midpoint response style can confound the interpretation of scores, threatening the validity of inferences made from survey responses. This study incorporated person-level covariates in the multidimensional item response tree model to explain heterogeneity in response style. We include an empirical example and two simulation studies to support the use and interpretation of the model: parameter recovery using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation and performance of the model under conditions with and without response styles present. Item intercepts mean bias and root mean square error were small at all sample sizes. Item discrimination mean bias and root mean square error were also small but tended to be smaller when covariates were unrelated to, or had a weak relationship with, the latent traits. Item and regression parameters are estimated with sufficient accuracy when sample sizes are greater than approximately 1,000 and MCMC estimation with the Gibbs sampler is used. The empirical example uses the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health’s sexual knowledge scale. Meaningful predictors associated with high levels of extreme response latent trait included being non-White, being male, and having high levels of parental support and relationships. Meaningful predictors associated with high levels of the midpoint response latent trait included having low levels of parental support and relationships. Item-level covariates indicate the response style pseudo-items were less easy to endorse for self-oriented items, whereas the trait of interest pseudo-items were easier to endorse for self-oriented items. 相似文献
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Eun Sook Kim Seang-Hwane Joo Philseok Lee Yan Wang Stephen Stark 《Structural equation modeling》2016,23(6):870-887
This simulation study examines the efficacy of multilevel factor mixture modeling (ML FMM) for measurement invariance testing across unobserved groups when the groups are at the between level of multilevel data. To this end, latent classes are generated with class-specific item parameters (i.e., factor loading and intercept) across the between-level classes. The efficacy of ML FMM is evaluated in terms of class enumeration, class assignment, and the detection of noninvariance. Various classification criteria such as Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and bootstrap likelihood ratio tests are examined for the correct enumeration of between-level latent classes. For the detection of measurement noninvariance, free and constrained baseline approaches are compared with respect to true positive and false positive rates. This study evidences the adequacy of ML FMM. However, its performance heavily depends on the simulation factors such as the classification criteria, sample size, and the magnitude of noninvariance. Practical guidelines for applied researchers are provided. 相似文献
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This study demonstrated the equivalence between the Rasch testlet model and the three‐level one‐parameter testlet model and explored the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for model parameter estimation in WINBUGS. The estimation accuracy from the MCMC method was compared with those from the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) with the expectation‐maximization algorithm in ConQuest and the sixth‐order Laplace approximation estimation in HLM6. The results indicated that the estimation methods had significant effects on the bias of the testlet variance and ability variance estimation, the random error in the ability parameter estimation, and the bias in the item difficulty parameter estimation. The Laplace method best recovered the testlet variance while the MMLE best recovered the ability variance. The Laplace method resulted in the smallest random error in the ability parameter estimation while the MCMC method produced the smallest bias in item parameter estimates. Analyses of three real tests generally supported the findings from the simulation and indicated that the estimates for item difficulty and ability parameters were highly correlated across estimation methods. 相似文献
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This article compares maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of the correlated trait–correlated method (CT–CM) confirmatory factor model for multitrait–multimethod (MTMM) data. In particular, Bayesian estimation with minimally informative prior distributions—that is, prior distributions that prescribe equal probability across the known mathematical range of a parameter—are investigated as a source of information to aid convergence. Results from a simulation study indicate that Bayesian estimation with minimally informative priors produces admissible solutions more often maximum likelihood estimation (100.00% for Bayesian estimation, 49.82% for maximum likelihood). Extra convergence does not come at the cost of parameter accuracy; Bayesian parameter estimates showed comparable bias and better efficiency compared to maximum likelihood estimates. The results are echoed via 2 empirical examples. Hence, Bayesian estimation with minimally informative priors outperforms enables admissible solutions of the CT–CM model for MTMM data. 相似文献
11.
Growth curve modeling provides a general framework for analyzing longitudinal data from social, behavioral, and educational sciences. Bayesian methods have been used to estimate growth curve models, in which priors need to be specified for unknown parameters. For the covariance parameter matrix, the inverse Wishart prior is most commonly used due to its proper and conjugate properties. However, many researchers have pointed out that the inverse Wishart prior might not work as expected. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of the inverse Wishart prior and compare it with a class of separation-strategy priors on the parameter estimates of growth curve models. In this article, we illustrate the use of different types of priors with 2 real data analyses, and then conduct simulation studies to evaluate and compare these priors in estimating both linear and nonlinear growth curve models. For the linear model, the simulation study shows that both the inverse Wishart and the separation-strategy priors work well for the fixed effects parameters. For the Level 1 residual variance estimate, the separation-strategy prior performs better than the inverse Wishart prior. For the covariance matrix, the results are mixed. Overall, the inverse Wishart prior is suggested if the population correlation coefficient and at least 1 of the 2 marginal variances are large. Otherwise, the separation-strategy prior is preferred. For the nonlinear growth curve model, the separation-strategy priors work better than the inverse Wishart prior. 相似文献
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《Structural equation modeling》2013,20(4):557-595
This simulation study demonstrates how the choice of estimation method affects indexes of fit and parameter bias for different sample sizes when nested models vary in terms of specification error and the data demonstrate different levels of kurtosis. Using a fully crossed design, data were generated for 11 conditions of peakedness, 3 conditions of misspecification, and 5 different sample sizes. Three estimation methods (maximum likelihood [ML], generalized least squares [GLS], and weighted least squares [WLS]) were compared in terms of overall fit and the discrepancy between estimated parameter values and the true parameter values used to generate the data. Consistent with earlier findings, the results show that ML compared to GLS under conditions of misspecification provides more realistic indexes of overall fit and less biased parameter values for paths that overlap with the true model. However, despite recommendations found in the literature that WLS should be used when data are not normally distributed, we find that WLS under no conditions was preferable to the 2 other estimation procedures in terms of parameter bias and fit. In fact, only for large sample sizes (N = 1,000 and 2,000) and mildly misspecified models did WLS provide estimates and fit indexes close to the ones obtained for ML and GLS. For wrongly specified models WLS tended to give unreliable estimates and over-optimistic values of fit. 相似文献
13.
Sunbok Lee 《Journal of Educational Measurement》2020,57(3):443-457
In the logistic regression (LR) procedure for differential item functioning (DIF), the parameters of LR have often been estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) estimation. However, ML estimation suffers from the finite-sample bias. Furthermore, ML estimation for LR can be substantially biased in the presence of rare event data. The bias of ML estimation due to small samples and rare event data can degrade the performance of the LR procedure, especially when testing the DIF of difficult items in small samples. Penalized ML (PML) estimation was originally developed to reduce the finite-sample bias of conventional ML estimation and also was known to reduce the bias in the estimation of LR for the rare events data. The goal of this study is to compare the performances of the LR procedures based on the ML and PML estimation in terms of the statistical power and Type I error. In a simulation study, Swaminathan and Rogers's Wald test based on PML estimation (PSR) showed the highest statistical power in most of the simulation conditions, and LRT based on conventional PML estimation (PLRT) showed the most robust and stable Type I error. The discussion about the trade-off between bias and variance is presented in the discussion section. 相似文献
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To infer longitudinal relationships among latent factors, traditional analyses assume that the measurement model is invariant across measurement occasions. Alternative to placing cross-occasion equality constraints on parameters, approximate measurement invariance (MI) can be analyzed by specifying informative priors on parameter differences between occasions. This study evaluated the estimation of structural coefficients in multiple-indicator autoregressive cross-lagged models under various conditions of approximate MI using Bayesian structural equation modeling. Design factors included factor structures, conditions of non-invariance, sizes of structural coefficients, and sample sizes. Models were analyzed using two sets of small-variance priors on select model parameters. Results showed that autoregressive coefficient estimates were more accurate for the mixed pattern than the decreasing pattern of non-invariance. When a model included cross-loadings, an interaction was found between the cross-lagged estimates and the non-invariance conditions. Implications of findings and future research directions are discussed. 相似文献
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AbstractFactor mixture models are designed for the analysis of multivariate data obtained from a population consisting of distinct latent classes. A common factor model is assumed to hold within each of the latent classes. Factor mixture modeling involves obtaining estimates of the model parameters, and may also be used to assign subjects to their most likely latent class. This simulation study investigates aspects of model performance such as parameter coverage and correct class membership assignment and focuses on covariate effects, model size, and class-specific versus class-invariant parameters. When fitting true models, parameter coverage is good for most parameters even for the smallest class separation investigated in this study (0.5 SD between 2 classes). The same holds for convergence rates. Correct class assignment is unsatisfactory for the small class separation without covariates, but improves dramatically with increasing separation, covariate effects, or both. Model performance is not influenced by the differences in model size investigated here. Class-specific parameters may improve some aspects of model performance but negatively affect other aspects. 相似文献
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In this paper, a prediction model is developed that combines a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and a Kalman filter for online forecasting of traffic safety on expressways. Raw time-to-collision (TTC) samples are divided into two categories: those representing vehicles in risky situations and those in safe situations. Then, the GMM is used to model the bimodal distribution of the TTC samples, and the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation parameters of the TTC distribution are obtained using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We propose a new traffic safety indicator, named the proportion of exposure to traffic conflicts (PETTC), for assessing the risk and predicting the safety of expressway traffic. A Kalman filter is applied to forecast the short-term safety indicator, PETTC, and solves the online safety prediction problem. A dataset collected from four different expressway locations is used for performance estimation. The test results demonstrate the precision and robustness of the prediction model under different traffic conditions and using different datasets. These results could help decision-makers to improve their online traffic safety forecasting and enable the optimal operation of expressway traffic management systems. 相似文献
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Deborah L. Bandalos 《Structural equation modeling》2013,20(1):102-116
Robust maximum likelihood (ML) and categorical diagonally weighted least squares (cat-DWLS) estimation have both been proposed for use with categorized and nonnormally distributed data. This study compares results from the 2 methods in terms of parameter estimate and standard error bias, power, and Type I error control, with unadjusted ML and WLS estimation methods included for purposes of comparison. Conditions manipulated include model misspecification, level of asymmetry, level and categorization, sample size, and type and size of the model. Results indicate that cat-DWLS estimation method results in the least parameter estimate and standard error bias under the majority of conditions studied. Cat-DWLS parameter estimates and standard errors were generally the least affected by model misspecification of the estimation methods studied. Robust ML also performed well, yielding relatively unbiased parameter estimates and standard errors. However, both cat-DWLS and robust ML resulted in low power under conditions of high data asymmetry, small sample sizes, and mild model misspecification. For more optimal conditions, power for these estimators was adequate. 相似文献
19.
Steffen Nestler 《Structural equation modeling》2013,20(3):461-473
This article applies Bollen’s (1996) 2-stage least squares/instrumental variables (2SLS/IV) approach for estimating the parameters in an unconditional and a conditional second-order latent growth model (LGM). First, the 2SLS/IV approach for the estimation of the means and the path coefficients in a second-order LGM is derived. An empirical example is then used to show that 2SLS/IV yields estimates that are similar to maximum likelihood (ML) in the estimation of a conditional second-order LGM. Three subsequent simulation studies are then presented to show that the new approach is as accurate as ML and that it is more robust against misspecifications of the growth trajectory than ML. Together, these results suggest that 2SLS/IV should be considered as an alternative to the commonly applied ML estimator. 相似文献
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Kristina R. Cassiday Youngmi Cho Jeffrey R. Harring 《Educational and psychological measurement》2021,81(4):668
Simulation studies involving mixture models inevitably aggregate parameter estimates and other output across numerous replications. A primary issue that arises in these methodological investigations is label switching. The current study compares several label switching corrections that are commonly used when dealing with mixture models. A growth mixture model is used in this simulation study, and the design crosses three manipulated variables—number of latent classes, latent class probabilities, and class separation, yielding a total of 18 conditions. Within each of these conditions, the accuracy of a priori identifiability constraints, a priori training of the algorithm, and four post hoc algorithms developed by Tueller et al.; Cho; Stephens; and Rodriguez and Walker are tested to determine their classification accuracy. Findings reveal that, of all a priori methods, training of the algorithm leads to the most accurate classification under all conditions. In a case where an a priori algorithm is not selected, Rodriguez and Walker’s algorithm is an excellent choice if interested specifically in aggregating class output without consideration as to whether the classes are accurately ordered. Using any of the post hoc algorithms tested yields improvement over baseline accuracy and is most effective under two-class models when class separation is high. This study found that if the class constraint algorithm was used a priori, it should be combined with a post hoc algorithm for accurate classification. 相似文献