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1.
This contribution shows a simple implementation of Monte Carlo simulation method when presenting Bayes' rule. The implementation is carried out in the environment of Microsoft Excel spreadsheets by means of a generator of random numbers. The empiric results gained by simulation serve to confirm the correctness of the chosen procedures in calculations using Bayes' formula. 相似文献
2.
廖德明 《重庆职业技术学院学报》2003,12(2):112-114
条件句的真值情况是很复杂的,从逻辑上来说,我们只注重于形式,根据费罗真值表就能够直接的判断出其真假情况。但是在日常思维中,仅仅考虑其形式是不够的,还牵涉到其前后件内容方面的联系,语境语义以及具体的时间变化对其真假的影响。因此本文试图从逻辑与日常思维两方面来对条件句的真假情况加以讨论。 相似文献
3.
Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross‐disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web‐based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure‐theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open‐source web‐application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web‐application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. 相似文献
4.
Tim Erickson 《Teaching Statistics》2017,39(1):30-35
Understanding a Bayesian perspective demands comfort with conditional probability and with probabilities that appear to change as we acquire additional information. This paper suggests a simple context in conditional probability that helps develop the understanding students would need for a successful introduction to Bayesian reasoning. 相似文献
5.
James G. Terhune 《Learning & behavior》1978,6(2):187-192
Premack’s probability hypothesis provides a simple empirical rule for predicting reinforcement effects, but has always been applied to response probabilities estimated by averaging over entire sessions. If the rule is robust, it should also predict momentary (e.g., within-sessions) changes in reinforcement from parallel momentary probability changes. It seems to do so. Six rats received noncontingent water (base), then leverpressed for water (contingency), each for 15 sessions. All sessions were divided into six subsessions. Average leverpressing for individual rats was a simple monotonie, usually linear, function of the probability of drinking—estimated from that subsession ’s counterpart during base. Similar results were obtained from a second study even though different instrumental and contingent events were used. With some generality, then, it is possible to apply the probability hypothesis to momentary reinforcement effects. 相似文献
6.
A student's choice of an answer to a test question is a coarse measure of his knowledge about the subject matter of the question. Much finer measurement might be achieved if the student were asked to estimate, for each possible answer, the probability that it is the correct one. Such a procedure could yield two classes of benefits: (a) students could learn the language of numerical probability and use it to communicate uncertainty, and (b) the learning of other subjects could be facilitated. This report describes the rationale underlying a procedure for eliciting personal estimates of probabilities utilizing a proper scoring rule, and illustrates some new techniques for calibrating those probabilities and providing better feedback to students learning to assess uncertainty. In addition, new results are presented compring the incentive for study, rehearsal, and practice provided by the proper scoring rule with that provided by the simple choice procedure, and concerning the potential effect of cutoff scores and prizes upon student behavior. 相似文献
7.
Seong-Soo Lee 《Contemporary educational psychology》1985,10(1):14-27
The present study was designed to assess the teachability of conditional logic structure, using a training-transfer paradigm. Some recent attempts to induce or teach conditional reasoning capability have not been very successful. A component process analysis of the syllogistic conditional reasoning task commonly used suggests that it involves three main components: (a) inductive rule learning—attribute coding and rule mapping, (b) induction of conditional language-“if-then” operator, and (c) deductive interpretation—decoding, matching, and evaluation. When trained on all these components, Grade 5 and 7 children became very competent in dealing with a criterion conditional reasoning task. The previous attempts might have missed the training of more than one of the subprocesses identified above. 相似文献
8.
John D. Foubert 《About Campus》2005,10(5):24-27
Several years ago, John Foubert was asked to counsel one university's male students on the truth of rape.Today, he and other men are taking that truth on the road—in a used RV. 相似文献
9.
张嵩高 《洛阳师范学院学报》2010,29(2):19-22
基于均匀概率空间的无穷乘积,n值Lukasiewicz命题逻辑中引入α-矛盾理论,给出了一般矛盾推理规则;利用命题的α-矛盾度定义了命题间的α-差异度,进而导出命题集上的一种伪距离. 相似文献
10.
Peter J. Urcuioli 《Learning & behavior》1990,18(3):302-314
Two sets of experiments examined how differential outcomes affect conditional stimulus control by the samples in delayed matching-to-sample. Pigeons were initially trained on symbolic delayed matching with reinforcing outcomes that were either differential or nondiffereatial with respect to the samples. In one set of experiments, the outcome manipulation involved different (p = 1.0 vs. 0.2) versus the same (p = 0.6) probabilities of food; in the other, food and no-food outcomes were used. Following initial acquisition and mixed-delay tests, the matching procedure in each study was discontinued while the samples were nondifferentially reinforced with the same probability of food, or with food and no food, respectively. When later retested on delayed matching with those nondifferential outcomes, birds initially trained with different reinforcement probabilities matched at the same levels of accuracy as those trained with the same probability. By contrast, birds initially trained with food versus no-food outcomes showed lower levels of matching accuracy than their nondifferential controls. Subsequent transfer tests showed that matching performances by the differential birds in both studies had been originally cued in part by differential outcome expectancies. Apparently, the expectancies based upon different probabilities of food provided a source of conditional stimulus control that did not compete with the samples. By contrast, the expectation of food versus no food reduced (overshadowed) sample-stimulus control. 相似文献
11.
In this essay, David Waddington and Noah Weeth Feinstein explore how Dewey's conception of science can help us rethink the way science is done in schools. The authors begin by contrasting a view of science that is implicitly accepted by many scientists and science educators — science as a search for truth — with Dewey's instrumentalist, technological, and nonrealist conception of science. After demonstrating that the search‐for‐truth conception is closely linked to some ongoing difficulties with science curricula that students find particularly alienating, they then analyze some of the educational opportunities that Dewey's vision opens up. Ultimately, Waddington and Weeth Feinstein argue that Dewey offers a humble and humanistic vision of science and science education practice that captures the power of science by connecting it clearly to everyday human activities and challenges. 相似文献
12.
Pauline B. Camp 《Quarterly Journal of Speech》2013,99(3):280-283
The character of Reagan's rhetoric and the response to it can be explained by its narrative form. The dominance of narrative in Reagan's discourse and the nature of the narrative form combine to differentiate the perspective of Reagan's supporters and his opponents. Three characteristics of narrative form—a story‐based truth, an emphasis on morality, and a grounding in common sense—explain the way in which narrative affects political judgment. The analysis reveals the power of narrative form and, in contrast to the assertions of some narrative theorists, its fragility and moral limitations. 相似文献
13.
David Trafimow 《Teaching Statistics》2011,33(3):83-84
Students often have difficulty understanding algebraic proofs of statistics theorems. However, it sometimes is possible to prove statistical theorems with pictures in which case students can gain understanding more easily. I provide examples for two versions of Bayes' theorem. 相似文献
14.
基于马尔可夫链的一类学习效率预测模型 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文利用马尔可夫链理论,在教学条件基本稳定不变的前提下,构建学生学习状态转移概率矩阵,用极限概率预测学生今后的学习状态,运用条件数学期望分析学习状态转变对学习效率的影响,建立预测远期学习效率的数学模型。 相似文献
15.
利用垂直阵列构作了1个non-Cartesion认证码,计算了它的参数.当编码规则按等概率分布选取时,求出了模仿攻击和替换攻击成功的概率. 相似文献
16.
利用辛几何构作了一个non-Cartesion认证码，计算了它的参数；当编码规则按等概率分布选取时，求出了模仿攻击和替换攻击成功的概率． 相似文献
17.
The purpose of the present study was to extend past work with the Angoff method for setting standards by examining judgments at the judge level rather than the panel level. The focus was on investigating the relationship between observed Angoff standard setting judgments and empirical conditional probabilities. This relationship has been used as a measure of internal consistency by previous researchers. Results indicated that judges varied in the degree to which they were able to produce internally consistent ratings; some judges produced ratings that were highly correlated with empirical conditional probabilities and other judges’ ratings had essentially no correlation with the conditional probabilities. The results also showed that weighting procedures applied to individual judgments both increased panel-level internal consistency and produced convergence across panels. 相似文献
18.
《Early education and development》2013,24(4):279-299
This paper describes instructional arrangements in first grade classrooms and assesses their effects on academic responses of students at risk for failure. A parallel set of analyses of not-at-risk controls provides a basis for comparison. Time-sampled, in-class observations focused on multiple components of instruction (subject matter, tasks assigned, group size, and teachers' behavior) and students' response (active/academic, task management, and inappropriate). The associations of instructional structure with type of student response were considered significant if replicated across two samples. Relative to base- rates (unconditional probabilities) six specific arrangements were shown to be significantly associated with either accelerated or decelerated rates (conditional probabilities) of at-risk and control students' active, academic, or inappropriate responses. The pattern of results indicated that while only one instructional arrangement was associated with increased inappropriate behavior for both groups, only two infrequently occurring arrangements in- creased academic responding. Implications with respect to both research and practice are discussed. 相似文献
19.
JOHAN DAHLBECK 《Journal of Philosophy of Education》2020,54(1):214-234
Saul Smilansky's Illusionism suggests that some false beliefs are important enough to warrant the indefinite perpetuation of illusions in order to protect the larger moral community from breaking down. In this article I suggest that this position actualises an old educational paradox where education is expected to protect the common moral community (even if this means maintaining some illusions), and at the same time promote the pursuit of truth. Taking Smilansky's position of Illusionism as a starting point, I argue that while Illusionism highlights and addresses an important problem—that sometimes false beliefs can function to maintain social stability where the truth threatens to unsettle it—relying on indefinite illusions is problematic from an educational point of view. It is difficult to justify that education, being at least in part motivated by truth-seeking, should (or even could) be grounded in illusion. Taking seriously the fact that a dimension of education concerns maintaining social stability, I suggest that Spinoza's notion of fiction can complement Smilansky's view in that it can be conceived in terms of an instrument for maintaining social stability and promoting truth-seeking without assuming that one end is pursued at the expense of the other. 相似文献
20.
Instrumental response variation is inversely related to reward probability. Gharib, Derby, and Roberts (2001) theorized that
individuals behave more variably when their expectation of reward is low. They postulate that this behavioral rule assists
the discovery of alternative actions when a target response is unlikely to be reinforced. This suggests that response variability
may be unaffected in a situation in which an animal’s behavior is inconsequential to outcome delivery. We trained 6 pigeons
in a within-subjects Pavlovian autoshaping procedure. On any given trial, the pigeons were presented with one of six colored
discs on a touchscreen; each stimulus was associated with a particular probability of food, ranging from 100% to 0.6%. Pecking
was more variable with low probabilities of food delivery, thus extending the rule relating variability and expectation to
a Pavlovian situation. 相似文献