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1.
《Higher Education Policy》1999,12(1):93-100
The operation of any organization depends on the supply of its manpower, and forecasting manpower needs is an essential part of the future strategic planning. Higher education in no exception, and academic manpower requirements constitute a crucial sector of the human resources development in the country. Subsequently, a simple, reliable yet rigorous method for forecasting such academic, manpower requirements becomes a major element in any strategic planning effort. In this paper, the Stepwise Regression Analysis technique is suggested as a reasonable and reliable forecasting method for a small sized technical university. King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) is used as an example for the application of the technique. The correlation established using the PC based Statgraphics software, was significant enough to justify confidence in the use of that technique. This method provides an attractive option for planners to develop reasonable forecasts for the decision makers. 1999 International Association of Universities. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 相似文献
2.
《欧洲教育》2013,45(3):104-108
I. The first thing that strikes the eye when one inquires into the premises, intentions, and results of French school reform is the importance of planning. Most recently, in addition to being systematically coordinated with manpower planning, this planning has been undergoing a development that, on the one hand, carries it beyond manpower planning — generally recognized to be insufficient — by introducing planning based on qualitative criteria; and, on the other, has grown through close cooperation between the Ministry of Education and the boards and committees dealing with matters of education and training, whose work is one component of the economic and social planning organized by the Planning Commission. This intensification of cooperation — which also signals a reduction in the gap between educational planning and educational policy — found concrete expression in the creation of twenty ministerial planning teams, whose findings were included in the deliberations of the Education Committee during preparation of the Sixth Plan for Education (1971-75) and were reflected in the content of its report. 相似文献
3.
要实现人力需求预测在教育规划中的准确应用,最为关键的环节在于如何将对未来职业的需求转化为对各级各类教育水平的人才的需求。这是一个非常困难但是可以完成的任务。转换的方法可以包括趋势外推法、国际比较法以及雇主访谈法等。 相似文献
4.
N.V. Varghese 《International Journal of Educational Development》1996,16(4):355-365
Decentralisation of educational planning continues to be a major concern in India. The District Primary Education Programme (DPEP) is one of the recent efforts in this direction. This paper closely scrutinises various steps initiated under the DPEP to promote decentralisation of educational planning in India. The analysis in this paper shows that the DPEP initiatives have succeeded in overcoming existing constraints on decentralisation by developing planning machinery and competency and by ensuring resource availability at the district level. The DPEP experience also shows that centralised decision making in certain areas in the initial stages may become necessary to promote decentralisation efforts in the long-run. However, to sustain the decentralisation process, it is important to progressively reduce the domains of centralised decision making. 相似文献
5.
《欧洲教育》2013,45(3):32-39
The state of research in Greek higher education has far-reaching consequences. The fact that university research continues to function only sluggishly undermines the universities' educational task, isolates them from the social area to which they belong, heightens the country's economic and cultural dependence, weakens social criticism, and hampers the procedures of social reform. However much teaching might form a basic axis of the university's task—which it does to such an extent that it is often confused with the whole of its existence—research is of central importance in defining the university as an institution devoted to higher education, that is, a place where a critical analysis of the production, communication, and use of knowledge is attempted. 相似文献
6.
Denis J. Davis 《Higher Education》1977,6(3):301-311
In this paper, an examination is made of some of the errors in educational planning arising from manpower forecasts. Using the Australian doctors manpower plan, 1975–91 (Committee on Medical Schools, 1973) as an illustration, the writer shows the large variation in results that can occur through the substitution of alternatively feasible coefficients. Rate of return analysis is then used to examine the economic feasibility of the recommendations to expand the Australian medical schools, the conclusion being made that rate of return analysis is required for the economic decision making, the manpower forecasting only being a thechnological. guide for varying, the returns of income differentials of the investment to allow for any rigidities in the education system or the labour market. 相似文献
7.
《Journal of Vocational Education & Training》2012,64(1):15-23
ABSTRACT One of the prerequisites for the development and modernisation of a country is technical‐vocational education and training. If carefully planned and appropriately financed, an efficient and effective capability may be produced. Kuwait, despite having vast economic resources, has been suffering from an obvious lack of skilled and semi‐skilled manpower in almost all the sectors of the economy. In order to fulfil this deficiency, technical‐vocational education and training was initiated to meet the urgent needs of the country. However, despite the realisation of the need for such institutions, their role has not lived up to their full potential. In most cases, low student aptitude, lack of managerial and academic facilities, and weak industrial linkages have thwarted the high prior expectations of such institutions. This study assesses the role of Kuwait's technical and vocational institutions in providing the country with skilled scientific and technical manpower. In addition, it examines the effect of the Gulf Crisis on such institutions and the challenge confronting them in providing the country with the manpower required, since many of the country's nationals, who previously occupied managerial scientific positions, have left the country. Finally, the paper argues that, unless such schemes are given serious attention, the country will be heavily dependent on expatriates for years to come. 相似文献
8.
《欧洲教育》2013,45(3):45-55
"French educational planning is planning based on manpower considerations; reforms in the school system are based on calculations of the needs of the labor market. Social components are subordinated to economic considerations. Changes in the school system place the accent primarily on creating new organizational units. Curricular changes are undertaken only if the findings of manpower studies indicate that they are useful, From a pedagogical and purely educational standpoint, French educational planning has initiated no reform tendencies. Since such a position remains beyond the scope of educational planning, reforms of this order have not taken place." (39) 相似文献
9.
D. Ramarao Rashmi Agrawal B.V.L.N. Rao S.K. Nanda Girish P. Joshi 《The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension》2013,19(4):397-412
AbstractPurpose: Developing countries need to plan growth or expansion of education so as to provide required trained manpower for different occupational sectors. The paper assesses supply and demand of professional manpower in Indian agriculture and the demands are translated in to educational requirements.Methodology: The supply is assessed from the output from agricultural education. The demand in various sub-sectors is assessed employing a mix of quantitative and qualitative forecasting tools. Based on the manpower gaps and extensive interactions with stakeholders, the manpower needs are translated into educational requirements.Findings: The demand–supply gap in agricultural professionals would cumulate to about 200,000 by 2020, which would need additional annual supply of 10,000 each of diploma holders and graduates.Practical implications: The study makes three main recommendations: first, to increase the supply of graduates and para-staff to cater to the emerging demand; second, agricultural education needs to meet the changing occupational structure; and third, responsibility for meeting agriculture education to be shared with the private sector.Originality/value: The paper proposes a mixed method that could be used to forecast human resource requirement in number of sub-sectors having differential information availability and growth patterns in terms of quality and quantity. Since the approach facilitates forecasting in situations of data limitations, it has potential for similar applications in many developing countries. 相似文献
10.
11.
BALAKRISHNAN N. 《浙江大学学报(A卷英文版)》2005,6(11):1204-1205
INTRODUCTION The stunning growth in storage technology prompted Prof. Raj Reddy of Carnegie Mellon University to envision that it would be possible to store in digital form, in the very near future, all knowledge ever acquired by the human race. As part of this grandiose vision and as a first step, in realizing this vision, it was proposed to create the Digital Library with a free-to-read, searchable collection of one million books, predominantly in Indian languages, available to every… 相似文献
12.
U. Muralidhar Jagdeesh C. Kalla 《The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension》2013,19(1):67-80
Abstract The study is an attempt to report the growth and status of agricultural education in India and to project a future scenario. The forecast made for trained agricultural manpower is based on socio-economic considerations which are then converted into an educational plan. Issues relating to educational policy to achieve supply-demand adjustments are subsequently discussed. Three main recommendations have emerged from this study. First, the number of diploma holders at the lower end of the professional ladder needs to be increased to cater for the social demand for more trained and readily available manpower to help clientele (farmers) to enhance the level of their awareness concerning technological developments in agriculture. Second, the number of specializations at postgraduate level needs to be decreased and agricultural education needs to be more broad based in commensuration with occupational demands. This would allow skilled and qualified manpower to be directed into areas of employment where they are needed most. Third, the participation of the private sector in the institutionalization of agricultural education may offer healthy competition to state supported agricultural universities and inculcate better entrepreneurship. Finally, recommendations pertaining to the job preferences of graduates and remedies to certain internal inconsistencies such as inbreeding in the system are also made. 相似文献
13.
对教育规划影响最大、应用最广的要数人力需求法,其理论基础是20世纪五六十年代人力资本理论中有关教育和经济发展关系的理论,共包括八个基本步骤。虽然人力需求法仍然有许多缺陷,但其在教育规划中的作用和地位是勿庸置疑的,因此我们所应做的是进一步将其完善。 相似文献
14.
Roddam Narasimha 《Resonance》2005,10(8):67-79
You look up at the sky, and see a lovely cloud; you look down, and may see lovely ripples on a rivulet (or river). On a hot summer afternoon you see dancing dust devils; on a cold winter evening you can see smoke rising lazily from achulah, and hang up there as if it has given up. You peer at a telescope, and see intense supersonic jets, or vast whirling galaxies; you measure in a wind tunnel, and sense powerful tornadoes behind an aircraft wing. The universe is full of fluid that flows in crazy, beautiful or fearsome ways. In our machines and in the lab, as in terrestrial nature, one sees this amazing diversity in the flow of such a simple liquid like water or a simple gas like air. What is it that makes fluid flows so rich, so complex-some times so highly ordered that their patterns can adorn a saree border, sometimes so chaotic as to defy analysis? Do thesame laws governall that extraordinary variety? We begin with a picture gallery of a number of visible or visualized flows, and consider which ones we understand and which ones we do not, which ones we can compute and which ones we cannot; and it will be argued that behind those all-too-common but lovely flows lie deep problems in physics and mathematics that still remain mysteries. 相似文献
15.
This article presents the results of empirical analysis of the influence of labour market factors on the private demand for university education in Ontario. Contrary to a widely held belief, the analysis indicates that the effect of youth unemployment upon enrolment demand is very weak. High unemployment, by itself, does not appear to drive youths into universities. On the other hand, expected earnings upon completion of a degree is shown to have a strong positive impact upon enrolment demand, particularly for post-graduate students. A 10 percent increase in the expected earnings of persons with post graduate degrees relative to persons with only bachelor's degrees is associated with more than a 20 percent increase in post-graduate enrolment. These findings are subject to qualifications regarding certain weaknesses in the data, as well as the usual problems of making inferences about expectation behaviour from ex post data. One important policy implication of this study is that attempts to use educational spending as a contra-cyclical device may not be successful unless students are given extra inducement to enrol when unemployment is high. Second, the apparent responsiveness of enrolment demand to changes in earnings expectations of degree holders underscores the importance of providing good up-to-date information on earnings prospects. It should be emphasized, however, that this study dealt only with aggregate (undergraduate or postgraduate) enrolment, and further research is needed to examine the responsiveness of specific program and subject choices to variation in occupational earnings prospects. Moreover, the responsiveness of student enrolment decisions to prospective earnings is only one of several factors — though a very important one — which must be taken into account in deciding upon the role of manpower considerations in educational planning. 相似文献
16.
Elizabeth S. Buckner 《Higher Education》2017,74(3):473-489
This article examines changing ideas about the relationship between the nation-state and the university in international higher education development discourse through a quantitative content analysis of over 700 academic articles, conference proceedings and research reports published by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). It finds that since the 1990s, emphasis on the private sector grows, the nation-state’s role shifts from one of manpower planning to strategic planning, and higher education is increasingly expected to promote standardized development goals and economic competitiveness in the global arena. However, it also finds that the role of the nation-state does not disappear—although no longer portrayed as the primary funder and provider of higher education, the nation-state is imbued with important regulatory functions. 相似文献
17.
John Adams 《International Journal of Educational Development》1981,1(2):67-68
This paper is an attempt to describe the nature and scope of educational provision in Tanzania since 1967. It focusses on the implications of educational policy for the development of manpower which would be suited to the satisfaction of basic needs in rural areas.Tanzania since 1967 is reportedly attempting to implement what amounts to a basic needs strategy of development in line with the declared socialist objectives of the Government.This strategy is essentially a mixture of poverty and employment oriented strategies directed at satisfying essential human needs in areas such as health, education, safe water, housing and sanitation, and food supply as well as other requirements for a fully productive life.Although the provision of education is itself a basic need, it is also a vehicle for the production of trained manpower which is essential to the effective implementation of the basic needs strategy in the other sectors mentioned above. This paper presents preliminary and tentative impressions of the relevance of Tanzania's educational system to the Government's objective of meeting the basic needs of its people as soon as possible.The paper is divided into four sections: educational philosophy in Tanzania, educational growth and development, manpower implications and theoretical models explaining the development of educational resources in Tanzania since 1967.It concludes that, where planning has preceded political decisions, large measures of success have been achieved, but that, overall, political expediency and haste have created substantial divergences between policy and practice. 相似文献
18.
《欧洲教育》2013,45(1):10-12
Modifications of the job structure made necessary by scientific and technical progress constitute an important question with regard to the reorganization of the school system; moreover, it is a question whose answers lie not only in the planning of the labor force, but to a far greater extent in economic planning for the country as a whole. Since Italian economic planning has placed its bet explicitly on the factor of "scientific and technical progress," it is evident that this problem cannot be limited to the question of skill requirements. Rather, it is generally assumed that, although a reduction of the problem to manpower and skill research and educational planning may indeed be expedient for methodological and systematic reasons, such an approach fails to deal with the most crucial issue: namely, how "active" economic planning can go beyond merely assessing the existing state of affairs to influencing directly the basic dynamics of the economy and, accordingly, redefining economic objectives as well. If the planning of vocational-technical training were seen primarily as adaptation to uncontrollable economic processes, the conclusion for Italy might well be that, given permanent unemployment (4), such planning need not be carried out, for enough labor of all categories is already on hand. 相似文献
19.
During 1975 a group of Monash University academics, who became nicknamed the “crystal ballgazers” began to meet with the aim of forecasting the future of higher education in Australia in the nineteen eighties and nineties. The predictions were published and by 1983 many of the forecasts had already proved remarkably accurate — and few, if any, of the pro‐active strategies that were suggested as a way of influencing the future had been adopted.
This paper provides two retrospective analyses of that work. in the first we present some of the actual forecasts and their accord with reality, and then juxtapose the reasons for our forecasts upon the reasons being proposed now for the trends that have emerged. In the second analysis, we examine the failure of the work to influence the power brokers in Australian higher education to adopt a longer term and a more pro‐active planning role. 相似文献
20.
This paper is an attempt to describe the nature and scope of educational provision in Tanzania since 1967. It focusses on the implications of educational policy for the development of manpower which would be suited to the satisfaction of basic needs in rural areas.Tanzania since 1967 is reportedly attempting to implement what amounts to a basic needs strategy of development in line with the declared socialist objectives of the Government.This strategy is essentially a mixture of poverty and employment oriented strategies directed at satisfying essential human needs in areas such as health, education, safe water, housing and sanitation, and food supply as well as other requirements for a fully productive life.Although the provision of education is itself a basic need, it is also a vehicle for the production of trained manpower which is essential to the effective implementation of the basic needs strategy in the other sectors mentioned above. This paper presents preliminary and tentative impressions of the relevance of Tanzania's educational system to the Government's objective of meeting the basic needs of its people as soon as possible.The paper is divided into four sections: educational philosophy in Tanzania, educational growth and development, manpower implications and theoretical models explaining the development of educational resources in Tanzania since 1967.It concludes that, where planning has preceded political decisions, large measures of success have been achieved, but that, overall, political expediency and haste have created substantial divergences between policy and practice. 相似文献