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1.
The popularity of contemporary social media (SM) has impacted democratic practices, and the success of presidential campaigns is frequently attributed to SM performance. Within this new scenario, many methodological proposals that use SM data have been put forward for predicting election results. However, the most common approach, based on the volume and sentiment analysis of mentions on Twitter, has been frequently criticized and challenged. Thus, recent surveys have indicated new directions, such as the use of data from more than one SM platform, the adoption of nonlinear machine learning (ML) models, and the validation of methodologies and experiments in different elections. In this context, the present paper proposes SoMEN, the Social Media framework for Election Nowcasting, a framework composed of a process and an ML model for nowcasting election results based on SM performance as features and with offline polls as labeled data. It also defines SoMEN-DC, an execution strategy for SoMEN that enables continuous prediction during the campaign (DC). The proposed metrics and framework were applied to some of the main recent presidential elections in Latin America: Argentina (2019), Brazil (2018), Colombia (2018), and Mexico (2018). More than 65,000 posts were collected from the SM profiles of candidates on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram with data from 195 presidential polls. Results have demonstrated that it was possible to achieve a high level of accuracy in predicting the final vote share of the candidates and to make daily predictions, providing competitive or better results than the traditional polls. The strategies put forward in this study have attempted to address several of the current challenges in this research area and have indicated a new manner of how to face the problems. They may also be directly used for predicting future elections in similar scenarios.  相似文献   

2.

The role of mass media in the presidential primaries has not been examined in the same fashion as in the presidential general elections, congressional elections, and gubernatorial elections. This study is based on a survey (face‐to‐face interviews) of 392 adults randomly selected from a city with a population of 444,000 during the 1996 presidential primaries. The results of the hierarchical multiple regression analyses show that television news programs increase learning about candidate issue policies. People's confidence in judging which candidate has a better chance to win the party's nomination is influenced by reading of newspaper campaign stories, viewing of the campaign commercials, and their attention to the campaign news on TV. This study enriches our understanding of media effects in the presidential primaries.  相似文献   

3.
In their public messages, United States politicians often invoke America in an attempt to unite citizens and build electoral coalitions. Such an emphasis is particularly common in presidential debates, which are climactic “media events” late in campaigns for the White House, when candidates take questions from journalists and citizens while addressing millions of voters. We analyzed the connection between (a) candidates' highlighting of national identity in presidential debates and (b) mass public opinion since 1960. We expected and found that (a) candidates increased their emphasis on the nation during times of heightened national uncertainty, (b) Democratic presidential candidates invoked the nation more often than Republican candidates, and (c) comparisons across elections among incumbents suggest that national uncertainty was more important than partisan identity in eliciting invocations of the nation.  相似文献   

4.
Mediated debates provide audiences with invaluable campaign information, and the public does in fact learn from debate exposure. Debates have undergone format changes over the years, but their ability to attract a mass audience remains constant. The way news media cover U.S. presidential elections has also evolved; increasing commercial pressures drive heightened emphasis on infotainment, soft news, and electoral strategy—often at the expense of hard news and policy content. Yet little is known about the content of agendas that news professionals set in presidential debates. Through a quantitative content analysis, this study examines 20 years of general election debate questions to determine whether the commercial news values common in today's campaign coverage also influence debate agendas. The findings presented herein suggest not only the presence of these news values in debate agendas but that format and moderator also wield a degree of influence over the content of debate questions.  相似文献   

5.
In 1884, a street corner harangue by the local precinct captain precipitated a torch light parade; the coming of a presidential aspirant caused the whole countryside to erupt. This article presents some of the color, bustle, hysteria, and rhetoric which accompanied James G. Blaine's week‐long but fruitless effort to capture the electoral votes of a crucial state.  相似文献   

6.
Elections are only meaningful if they are free, fair and transparent. What triggers fairness in elections? In this article, I aim at emphasizing the Internet's potential in improving the fairness and objectivity of elections. Through a multiple regression analysis with data from > 120 countries across the globe, I establish that there is a rather strong link between higher internet penetration and fairer and more transparent elections in both countries that allow a free press and in countries that do not allow a free press. I can derive both practical and theoretical implications from this finding. More practically, this result highlights that the internet improves access to political news, accommodates pluralistic sources of information, and produces platforms for political discourse; all of which should make the electoral process more transparent. More theoretically the article introduces an additional variable aimed at explaining variation in the fairness of the electoral process; a factor, which should be included in future analyses.  相似文献   

7.
Which issues do political parties emphasize in campaigns? Selecting the issues to emphasize in campaigns is treated with the same importance as policy positioning. Nevertheless, little attention has been paid to understanding parties’ strategies of issue competition in presidential elections under multiparty systems. By analyzing statements of presidential candidates in the 2002, 2007, and 2012 Korean presidential debates, we find that presidential candidates use their issue emphasis strategies differently in presidential elections according to party size and ideological relationships with other parties. Specifically, a small party’s candidates have been more likely than mainstream parties’ candidates to pursue their issue ownership advantage. In addition, a mainstream party’s candidates have emphasized the issues of a small party more than those of his own party when the two parties have had a similar ideological foundation, whereas, when there were no such ideological similarities, a mainstream party’s candidate has only focused on issues of the mainstream party. Our results imply that the political communication used by political parties and candidates is conditioned not only by political contexts such as electoral systems or party systems but also by the size and ideology of parties.  相似文献   

8.
Do presidential candidates adapt their spot messages to the public's interests? This study conducts a computer content analysis of the texts of presidential television spots from 1952–2000. Public opinion poll data on the most important issues for voters, in each campaign, are used to structure the searches. The extent to which candidate spot messages conform to the public issue agenda is determined. Democrats’ and challengers’ spot messages are significantly more aligned with the public policy priorities than Republicans or incumbents. There is no significant difference between the correlations for winners versus losers. Finally, in 5 of the 13 elections there is a significant relationship between the issues covered by the two candidates. Clearly, some candidates are better at adapting their television messages to voters and in some elections the candidates tend to discuss the same policy issues.  相似文献   

9.
Opinion polls play an important role in modern democratic processes: they are known to not only affect the outcomes of elections, but also have a significant influence on government policy after elections. Recent years have seen large discrepancies between polls and outcomes at several major elections and referendums, stemming from decreased participation in polls and an increasingly volatile electorate. This calls for new ways to measure public support for political parties. In this paper, we propose a method for measuring the popularity of election candidates on social media using Machine Learning-based Natural Language Processing techniques. The method is based on detecting voting intentions in the data. This is a considerable advance upon earlier work using automatic sentiment analysis. We evaluate the method both intrinsically on a set of hand-labelled social media posts, and extrinsically – by forecasting daily election polls. In the extrinsic evaluation, we analyze data from the 2016 US presidential election, and find that voting intentions measured from social media provide significant additional predictive value for forecasting daily polls. Thus, we demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to interpolate polls both spatially and temporally, thus providing reliable, continuous and fine-grained information about public opinion on current political issues.  相似文献   

10.
The effects of new communication technologies on election campaigns, and the effectiveness of media-centered campaign strategies more broadly, remain ongoing subjects for debate in political science. This study provides some of the first empirical evidence about the potential impact of social media on the 2012 U.S. presidential elections, by testing the association between “candidate salience” and the candidates' level of engagement in online social media sphere. We define “candidate salience” as the extent to which candidates are discussed online by the public in an election campaign, and have selected the number of mentions presidential candidates receive on the social media site, Twitter, as means of quantifying their salience. This strategy allows us to examine whether social media, which is widely recognized as disruptive in the broader economic and social domains, has the potential to change the traditional dynamics of U.S. election campaigns. We find that while social media does substantially expand the possible modes and methods of election campaigning, high levels of social media activity on the part of presidential candidates have, as of yet, resulted in minimal effects on the amount of public attention they receive online.  相似文献   

11.
This study intends to examine the representation of cultural values through the presidential candidate debates of the US and South Korea. A content analysis of the videostyles of debates in these two countries showed that political debates seemed to manifest differences in cultural values at large due to their nature as conspicuous indicators of cultural values. By examining specific verbal components of the debates, however, this study revealed that the nature of presidential debates might actually overpower cultural norms, which are likely to be embedded in debates. These findings imply that by imitating campaign practice developments in the US, many countries are transitioning to media-centered democracies in which various forms of mass media, particularly television, technological innovations, and political marketing approaches, have grown to play a significant role in influencing and changing the nature of electoral communication and other political practices around the globe.  相似文献   

12.
The 2016 U.S. presidential election saw social media continue to play an important role in citizens’ political engagement. This study examines the effect of seeing social media political post sharing on individuals’ own political post sharing. Results from a two-wave survey suggest the interplay within the network is important. Seeing others share political posts and perceiving posts were biased towards a candidate predicted sharing political posts.  相似文献   

13.
It is trendy for university libraries to offer services on social media (SM) platforms. As many millennials prefer to use apps of photo-snapping, libraries unavoidably start to use Instagram to connect with users. This study examines the effectiveness of the use of Facebook and Instagram in The University of Hong Kong Libraries (HKUL), by a mixed-method approach to analyze the posts on the two SM sites of HKUL and user feedback collected from interviews on campus. The content analysis surprisingly revealed that both Facebook and Instagram received very low user engagement, and the most frequently posted contents were library operational news and library events. The interviewees opined that they welcomed HKUL's use of Facebook and Instagram, but they urged HKUL to change its uninteresting style on the SM sites and make better use of the SM features to attract users' attention. This study provides insights for librarians for their effective management and adoption of SM, especially for content design and management.  相似文献   

14.
Decades of communication research have demonstrated that political candidate images are important predictors of electoral success and that campaign communication influences these image perceptions. However, questions remain about the relative importance of various facets of candidate image, how electoral context and partisanship influence the salience of these facets, and whether privileged classes enjoy presumption in image facets that reinforce their dominant position in politics. These questions require a new approach to image research. We propose a multifactor approach that explores the relative importance of six image traits: character, intelligence, leadership, benevolence, homophily, and charm. The benefits of this approach are illustrated through application to two electoral contexts, the 2012 U.S. presidential election and the 2014 U.S. midterm elections.  相似文献   

15.
This study investigates the impact of dual-screening on audiences’ perceptions of presidential candidates during the 2016 electoral campaign. The results suggest that dual-screening can exert a significant moderation role, weakening the direct effects of the televised debates on candidate perceptions. The results also imply that the role of dual-screening might be dependent on the audience’s need-to-evaluate characteristic. These findings address the pressing societal questions on ways that digital disruption is impacting the role of traditional media in political campaigns and our theoretical understanding of this process.  相似文献   

16.
In this article the authors argue that studies of the influenceof the mass media on public support for presidential candidatesin primary elections should return to the social pyschologicalmodel of attitude change. This model should take into account,however, that in the real world, unlike laboratory settings,randomization and complete controls of variables are not possible,and rational and strategic choice considerations come into play,along with the cumulative effects of new information on aggregateopinion. The variables found to be relevant to attitude change,especially the characteristics of the communicator and the communication,have not been studied systematically in natural settings. Littleis known about how new information unrelated to electoral ‘momentum’affects the public's evaluations and support for candidates.A fuller explanation is needed of what are complex media influenceson candidate support in primary elections—including especiallythose messages conveyed through the media which tend to be distinctiveand most accessible to memory: information about the viabiltiyof candidates; positive messages and images conveyed directlyfrom the candidates themselves and (to a lesser extent) fromother major party leaders who support or oppose them; and, ofspecial theoretical importance, the ostensibly credible newscommentary about the candidates.  相似文献   

17.
This study conceptualizes news bias as a causal factor producing systematic imbalance in the coverage of conflicting sides. Partisan bias is distinguished from structural bias by coverage that systematically favors one side with more prominence and attention. Content analysis was used to compare the television networks' balance in their treatment of Republican and Democratic candidates in stories and segments covering the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Presidential candidates received balanced aggregate treatment in both elections. But individual networks differed in their partisan balance. CBS News consistently favored the Democratic candidate in both elections, unlike the mixed results for ABC and NBC. CBS's pattern of imbalance, especially in the 2004 election, suggests a possible political bias in its coverage.  相似文献   

18.
Congressional elections are crucial to the American political system and candidates spend millions of dollars seeking votes with television spots. Unfortunately, the literature in this area is a hodgepodge of studies (with different methods and samples) rather than a comprehensive analysis of congressional television advertising. This study utilized the Functional Theory of Political Campaign Discourse to content analyze 744 television spots for House and Senate candidates from 1980–2004. Candidate discourse in these spots employed acclaiming (positive) strategies much more frequently than attacking (negative) or defending (refutational) strategies. Unlike discourse in presidential campaigns, congressional TV spots tend to place equal emphasis on policy and character (although since 1992 the emphasis has been on policy). Democrats tend to attack more and to discuss policy more than their counterparts. Incumbents acclaimed more and attacked less than challengers, whereas open-seat candidates have a style that lies between these two extremes. Open-seat candidates discuss past deeds less frequently than incumbents or challengers, both of whom tend to rely on the incumbent's record to attack (challengers) or to acclaim (incumbents).  相似文献   

19.
Traditionally, two competing claims have arisen that attempt to explain the role of political sophistication in media effectiveness. I reassess the positive versus negative impacts of political sophistication on media priming effects by considering a curvilinear approach. I combine public opinion data (National Election Studies) on candidate selection criteria in 1992 and 2000 presidential elections with content analyses of campaign news coverage to see which segment of voters at different sophistication levels is most susceptible to media agendas. Quadratic regression analyses reveal that an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between voters' susceptibility to campaign news and their level of political sophistication. Such a curvilinear relationship means that the moderately sophisticated are more likely to accept news agendas than the least or most sophisticated. The findings illuminate the long-standing debate about the inconsistent linear relationships between the two variables, providing a more cogent explanation underlying media priming effects.  相似文献   

20.
This study examined whether the candidate-controlled public relations tools of political ads and candidate blogs were successful in influencing the issue and news agenda of the major television news networks during the 2004 presidential election. Data showed strong correlations between blogs and the media agenda. Advertisements did not correlate with the media agenda. Cross-lag analyses showed that the media set the candidates' agenda. The authors suggest intermedia agenda setting occurred as the media transferred their agenda to campaign blogs.  相似文献   

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