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针对中国上市公司股权结构的特殊性,修正KMV模型中股权市值计算和违约点设定方法,以2010—2011年所有A股上市公司为样本,运用修正的KMV模型对ST公司和非ST公司信用风险进行评价和预测,建立合适的财务困境预警线。大样本下的实证研究表明,修正后的KMV模型至少可以提前两年对上市公司的财务困境进行有效预警。 相似文献
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科技型企业财务预警实证研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
李道波 《绵阳师范学院学报》2005,24(6):16-21,26
本文以25家ST和＊ST科技型上市公司及其配对的25家科技型上市公司为研究样本，从20个财务指标中筛选出6个财务指标为研究对象，采用统计软件SPSS中的典型判别法建立了我国科技型上市公司财务预警模型。然后选取15家科技型上市公司为检验样本以检验本文建立的财务预誓模型的准确率，检验结果表明，本文建立的财务预警模型的准确率较高。 相似文献
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分析了上市公司财务失败线性模型的缺欠,即线性补偿和增补效应不变;提出了解决问题的方法--建立非线性模型.与线性模型相比,非线性预警模型提高了模型的判别和预测能力. 相似文献
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随着我国资本市场的不断发展与完善,对上市公司财务困境进行预测逐渐得到学术界的广泛关注。本文选取了自2004年至2005年7月1日首次因财务状况异常而被特别处理的上市公司作为研究样本,选取了30个财务指标,采用主成分分析方法确定模型变量,利用logistic回归建立模型,并且加入了审计意见进行修正,对上市公司财务困境进行了预测。研究结果显示logit模型有一定的预测性,并且审计意见在被特别处理前两年能够提高预测率。 相似文献
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针对近年来时常出现的上市公司财务数据造假及暴雷情况，建立适用于中国市场不同行业的上市公司财务数据造假识别和预测模型.应用一系列数据分析与机器学习算法筛选出财务造假识别关键指标，并进行参数调优，最终选择决策树算法作为最佳的造假识别预测方法，其精确率在测试集中达0.949.同时将数据样本较少的行业所属聚类簇作为特征选择与造假识别，实现了不同行业上市公司财务造假识别和预测. 相似文献
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回顾上市公司财务预警问题的研究情况。选取35家被特别处理的上市公司和35家未被特别处理的上市公司作为样本,从20个初始财务指标中筛选出4个作为预测指标,使用Logistic回归分析和多层感知器两种方法,建立模型进行财务预警分析。结果表明:多层感知法对财务困境的预警效果要好于Logistic回归法,两种方法对特别处理前1年的预警能力良好,对前2年和前3年的预测能力下降迅速,为了提高财务困境的预测能力,提出"过程监管"的新监管策略。 相似文献
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尹启华 《十堰职业技术学院学报》2007,20(3):13-15
在介绍湖北上市公司整体财务状况的基础上,运用了Altman的Z计分模型,并以2006年湖北上市公司40只A股作样本(剔除了该年份数据缺失的上市公司),对湖北上市公司财务风险进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,Z计分模型在评价上市公司财务风险方面具有较强的有效性。 相似文献
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文章以经典财务可持续增长模型——罗伯特C·希金斯模型为理论基础,并选取我国家中小板上市公司2009—2013年的面板数据对中小板上市公司财务可持续增长进行实证研究. 研究发现:我国中小板上市公司实际增长率大于可持续增长率,存在财务过快增长的问题,在此结果基础上探究其影响因素并提出几点对策建议. 相似文献
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精确的财务困境预测对企业管理层、投资者、债权人、监管层等都有着十分重要的意义。本文以支持向量机（SVM）为基础,选取径向基核函数为内积函数,构建财务困境预警的SVM模型。实证结果表明,SVM模型不论是在建模样本精度或是测试样本精度上,都明显优于传统判别模型。 相似文献
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In signal detection rater models for constructed response (CR) scoring, it is assumed that raters discriminate equally well between different latent classes defined by the scoring rubric. An extended model that relaxes this assumption is introduced; the model recognizes that a rater may not discriminate equally well between some of the scoring classes. The extension recognizes a different type of rater effect and is shown to offer useful tests and diagnostic plots of the equal discrimination assumption, along with ways to assess rater accuracy and various rater effects. The approach is illustrated with an application to a large‐scale language test. 相似文献
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校企合作是高职院校人才培养重要模式,该模式能有效防止信息不对称条件下企业对人才需求的逆向选择。该模式中,互利共赢是双方合作的基础,校企之间通过信号传递和甄别选择合作对象,设计激励机制．保证双方的长久合作。 相似文献
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Magnus Bygren 《Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education》2020,45(2):292-303
AbstractGroup differences in average grades prior to and after a step-wise introduction of blinded examinations at Stockholm University are examined. Relative to students with ‘native’ names, students with ‘foreign’ names appear to experience weak positive bias in the grading of their examinations, but the estimated effect is sensitive to model specification. No substantial effects of blinding examinations with respect to male-female gaps are found. The results suggest that examiners – when the names of students are disclosed to them – if anything have a weak tendency to positively discriminate for students perceived to have an immigrant background, but they do not appear to discriminate on the basis of gender. 相似文献
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培养高素质的医学人才,建立良好的临床辩证思维能力,要求在医学生实习阶段的各个环节加强临床辩证素养训练。应在医学生的岗前教育、病例讨论、教学查房、教学讲座、出科考核等方面入手,强化对医学生临床辩证思维培养。 相似文献
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Hui-rong Xu Peng Yu Xia-ping Fu Yi-bin Ying 《Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B》2009,10(2):126-132
The use of visible-near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was explored as a tool to discriminate two new tomato plant varieties in China (Zheza205 and Zheza207).In this study,82 top-canopy leaves of Zheza205 and 86 top-canopy leaves of Zheza207 were measured in visible-NIR reflectance mode.Discriminant models were developed using principal component analysis (PCA),discriminant analysis (DA),and discriminant partial least squares (DPLS) regression methods.After outliers detection,the samples were randomly split into two sets,one used as a calibration set (n=82) and the remaining samples as a validation set (n=82).When predicting the variety of the samples in validation set,the classification correctness of the DPLS model after optimizing spectral pretreatment was up to 93%.The DPLS model with raw spectra after multiplicative scatter correction and Savitzky-Golay filter smoothing pretreatments had the best satisfactory calibration and prediction abilities (correlation coefficient of calibration (Rc)=0.920,root mean square errors of calibration=0.196,and root mean square errors of prediction=0.216).The results show that visible-NIR spectroscopy might be a suitable alternative tool to discriminate tomato plant varieties on-site. 相似文献
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OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study are to demonstrate 1) the criterion validity of the Abel Assessment for sexual interest (AASI) based on its ability to discriminate between non child molesters and admitting child molesters, and 2) its resistance to falsification based on its ability to discriminate between liar-denier child molesters and non child molesters. METHOD: A group of 747 participants matched by age, race, and income was used to develop three logistic regression equations. The models compare a group of non child molesting patients under evaluation for other paraphilias to three groups: 1) a group of admitting molesters of girls under 14 years of age, 2) a group of admitting molesters of boys under 14 years of age, and 3) a group believed to be concealing or denying having molested. RESULTS: Both of the equations designed to discriminate between admitting child molesters and non child molesters were statistically significant. The equation contrasting child molesters attempting to conceal or deny their behavior and non child molesting patients was also statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The models classifying admitting child molesters versus non child molesters demonstrate criterion validity, while the third model provides evidence of the AASI's resistance to falsification and its utility as a tool in the detection of child molesters who deny the behavior. Results of the equations are reported and suggestions for their use are discussed. 相似文献
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In two experiments, we examined the discrimination of photographs of individual pigeons by pigeons, using go/no-go discrimination procedures. In Experiments 1A and 1B, the pigeons were trained to discriminate 4 photographs of one pigeon from those of a number of pigeons. The subjects learned the discrimination, but their discriminative behavior did not transfer to new photographs taken from novel perspectives. When the pigeons were trained to discriminate between 20 photographs of five pigeons taken from four perspectives as the S+ and 20 photographs of five different pigeons as the S-, the subjects learned the discrimination, and this discriminative behavior partially transferred to new photographs taken from novel perspectives (Experiments 2A-2C). The results suggest that pigeons are able to discriminate among conspecific individuals, using stationary visual cues. This strengthens the assumption in evolutionary theory that animals can discriminate among individuals and encourages further investigation as to how this ability is used in various behaviors of animals. 相似文献
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Two groups of pigeons were trained with a go/no-go procedure to discriminate video images of conspecifics based on the individuals or else on their actions. Both groups showed rapid acquisition, and the discrimination transferred to new scenes in Experiment 1 and to static scenes in Experiment 2. In Experiment 3, experimentally naive pigeons were trained to discriminate video images of particular birds showing different actions. Transfer to novel scenes, including a new bird and a new motion, revealed the dominance of motion as a cue to discriminate video images. In Experiment 4, the pigeons trained to discriminate video scenes of 2 pigeons showing a variety of activities successfully recognized these stimuli regardless of whether the video was played forward or backward, and transferred the discrimination to still scenes. The findings suggest that pigeons’ discrimination of video images is primarily based on information that is invariant across static and dynamic conditions. 相似文献
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针对大学生体质健康的评价,通过对原始的数据进行分析,先用拉依达法则和Matlab7进行异常点的剔除,得到较准确的数据,分别建立了男女生体重指数（BMI）的对比分析、多元线性回归、K-均值聚类分析、得分等级判定、数理统计和Fisher判别模型,运用Excel、Spss、Eviews软件编程分析法,得到影响大学生体质健康的各类指标的评价标准. 相似文献