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1.
This paper explores the role of perceptions of the opinionsof others as they relate to the formation of public opinion.Two interrelated theories involving such perceptions, the thirdperson effect and the spiral of silence, are tested in the contextof public opinion regarding divestment of financial interestsin South Africa. As hypothesized by the third person effect, perceptions of theinfluence of media reports on others were found to be consistentlygreater than perceptions of influence on self. Findings werestrongly supportive of this component of the ‘third personeffect’ hypothesis. Perceptions of the opinions of otherswere also explored in relation to respondents' willingness toexpress their opinions publicly. As suggested by the spiralof silence theory, respondents were found to be more willingto express their opinions publicly when they perceived a trendin support of their viewpoint, or when there was a greater perceivedlikelihood of achieving success for their issue position. The size of the effect produced from joining these two processesis moderated by the role of issue salience. People perceivingdivestment as a highly important issue are more likely to ascribegreater media influence to others than to themselves, but theirwillingness to express their opinions publicly is least likelyto be influenced by perceptions of the climate of opinion.  相似文献   

2.
This study ties the third-person effect phenomenon to social comparison research by positing that a downward comparison is made when people regard “others” as more influenced than themselves by persuasive messages. A likely consequence of the downward comparison is prevention behavior, which refers to the attempt to avoid undesirable outcomes. Hence we can expect a negative relationship between perceived influence of messages on others and actual influence of the messages on self. This negative relationship should be particularly likely to exist among less efficacious individuals. Utilizing a survey experiment (N = 800), which examined both the perceived and actual influence of opinion poll findings on people's issue opinions, this study shows that the prevention effect does not exist across the board, but there is enough evidence showing its existence among less efficacious people on certain issues.  相似文献   

3.
THE ACCESSIBILITY BIAS IN POLITICS: TELEVISION NEWS AND PUBLIC OPINION   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The influence of television news over public opinion is tracedto the ‘accessibility bias’ in processing information.In general, the argument stipulates that information that canbe more easily retrieved from memory tends to dominate judgments,opinions and decisions. In the area of public affairs, moreaccessible information is information that is more frequentlyof more recently conveyed by the media. Four different manifestationsor the accessibility bias in public opinion are described includingthe effects of news coverage on issue salience, evaluationsof presidential perfomance, attributions of issue responsibility,and voting choices.  相似文献   

4.
This study examines the triangular relationship of the press,the president and public opinion about the drug issue in theUnited States from 1985 to 1990. Agenda-setting theory servesas the theoretical foundation for the ARIMA time-series analysis,which attempts to address who is driving the public opinionformation process about drugs: the press, the president, orthe public. The study employs a unique method in that ‘mostimportant problem’ survey results from nine organizationsare quilted into a time-series of 70 monthly points to measurethe public agenda. The press agenda is based on a computerizedcontent analysis of the frequency of coverage of the drug issue,and the presidential agenda is based on a similar analysis ofthe presidents’ public relations agendas. The three univariatetime-series are identified, estimated, and diagnosed. Then thewhite-noise component of each is used in a cross-correlationanalysis to address the research question. The results indicatethat public opinion mirrors or immediately follows the press,though public opinion also drives the press agenda. Second,the study suggests that the president is following the publicagenda, though the president also has strong immediate influenceon public opinion. And, finally it suggests the president mirrorsand follows the media, in addition to following public opinion.The trend of opinion, when viewed in relation to the historyof events surrounding the issue, suggests that the public opinionformation process, as measured through the lens of public opinionpolls, may be a matter of public perceptions of the realityof the issue and of the pseudo-realities of information campaignsand presidential and press attention, which may have their originsback in the heart of the public concern.  相似文献   

5.
《Journalism Practice》2013,7(5):741-759
This study explores how differently and similarly the liberal and conservative newspapers in South Korea framed the Arab Spring in their opinion sections. By employing a qualitative framing analysis of editorials and columns, it found that the ideological views of the news outlets themselves had a considerable influence on the opinion discourses. Compared to the liberal papers, the conservative papers more persistently linked the Arab Spring to South Korea's confrontation with North Korea and portrayed the North Korean regime as the world's most infamous and brutal suppressor of human rights. While the conservative papers rarely saw the Arab Spring as the result of West-led neo-liberal globalization, the liberal papers characterized the Arab Spring as being part of the resistance to “neo-liberalism.” This ideological divergence media made possible the presentation of a variety of views about a public issue within a South Korean context. However, it is a matter of grave concern that news outlets' ideological orientations can also impede the objective presentation of an international issue or event, such as the Arab Spring.  相似文献   

6.
This study employed a four-fold typology of opinion groups depictingthe relationships between minority–majority status andaccurate–inaccurate perception of the climate of opinionabout the 1990 prediction of a destructive earthquake for themid-United States New Madrid Seismic Zone. Data were collectedfrom 629 residents of the area where the earthquake was predictedto occur. Two frameworks were employed to define the climateof opinion to take into account two key variables that influencepublic response to earthquake predictions: the predication'sbelievability and its importance. Accurate perceptions of theclimate of opinion were differntiated from inaccurate perceptionsbased on more frequent media use and the confidence respondentsfelt about protecting themselves from potential earthquake damages.Inaccurate perceptions of the climate of opinion are differentiatednot by more extensive media use and discussions, but by thecrediability placed on the information from the news media anddiscussions, as well as the perceived influence of these informationsources.  相似文献   

7.
Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action.  相似文献   

8.
There is growing research on voting behavior in referendums.However, the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendums,referendums initiated by the electorate to approve or rejectdecisions made by representative bodies, has not yet been studied.This is especially unfortunate as voting decisions in popularreferendums differ from those in other referendums in interestingways. Opinion formation can be a very dynamic process in popularreferendums, making the referendum campaign crucial. This paperstudies the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendumsand relates them to particular characteristics of the campaignsand the issues at hand. Based on the literature, we consideredthe effects of the intensity of the yes and no campaigns, familiaritywith the issue, and partisan cues. Our study uses content analysisdata and data from public opinion surveys dealing with variouspopular referendums held in the Netherlands. The study revealedseveral factors that contributed to the volatility of opinionsin the referendum campaigns: the issue (new and did not fittraditional political schemes), lack of support from societaland community organizations for the position of the local authorities,and low profile campaigns on the part of local authorities.While some of these factors are general and may play a rolein referendums everywhere, some can be considered ‘typicallyDutch’, related to the characteristics of popular referendumsin the Netherlands and the country’s political system.  相似文献   

9.
Data from seven Swedish Election Studies were analyzed to testthree hypotheses about aggregate public opinion. Various facetsof public opinion, including a balance measure of direction,five measures of intensity, percentage don't know, and percentageneutral, were found to be highly stable across time. In mostinstances, the majority was more intense than the minority.Changes in public opinion could not be predicted from the relativeintensity of the majority and the minority in the election threeyears before.  相似文献   

10.
This study analyses the impact of perceptions of the opinions of others on political outspokenness in Hong Kong. Based on the results of two representative telephone surveys conducted in Hong Kong in 1993 and 1995, the spiral of silence theory is tested in the context of public opinion regarding the Sino‐British dispute over Hong Kong's political future and the 1995 Legislative Council election. As hypothesized, respondents in both surveys were more willing to voice their political opinions publicly when they perceived the majority opinion to be on their side, or when they perceived a trend in support of their own political viewpoint. However, this effect was observed only for respondents who were not much concerned about either issue. People's political outspokenness was primarily boosted by higher issue salience, more exposure and attention to television news and news magazines, and higher political interest and efficacy.  相似文献   

11.
The polarization process in the formation and expression ofpublic opinion needs further exploration, especially in threeareas: (1) the reluctance to publicly voice one's own moderateor qualified opinion if that act would benefit a group at oneof the ends of an opinion continuum; (2) the imputation of aclustered set of opinions on a number of issues to those whohold opinions on one specific issue; (3) the formation of one'sopinion on an issue, based on the group identity of those whoare at the extreme of that issue. In (1), opinion formationaround an issue occurs not just on the individually assessedmerits of the issue but also on who are identified as supportersof one side or the other. Thus, those who see ambiguities arereluctant to express reservations about an extreme positionfor fear of giving aid and comfort to those at the other extreme.The perception of the public's opinion becomes distorted andthe issue will become further polarized. In (2), issue clustering,or 'bundling', occurs whenever those who are identified withone opinion are assumed to hold a set of other opinions which,taken together, make them pejoratively different kinds of peoplefrom those who so identify them. In (3), individuals form orexpress opinions about complex subjects based on the positionof groups they identify with rather than by an attempt to becomefamiliar with the issue.  相似文献   

12.
Using the issue of genetically modified foods, this study examines how the Internet may affect the spiral of silence phenomenon in South Korea. More specifically, we explore whether the Internet has created a social environment, where people can exchange opinions more freely without being fearful of social isolation. Analyzing data from an online survey, we first examine whether the Internet can play a role as a source of information, from which people assess the climates of public opinion. Also examined is whether the opinions of netizens can comprise another form of opinion climate, exerting pressure on one's willingness to speak out. Finally, we explore whether expressing an opinion on the Internet is subject to the pressure of opinion climates. Findings suggest that the Internet may play an important role in shaping people's perceptions of opinion climates. Perceived opinion congruence with other people were significantly associated with one's willingness to participate in an online forum, indicating that expressing an opinion on the Internet may be subject to the spiral of silence effect. We conclude that the Internet in South Korea may not have helped to diminish the social pressure that keeps citizens from expressing a minority view.  相似文献   

13.
Hayes, Glynn, and Shanahan (2005) defined self-censorship asthe withholding of one’s opinion around an audience perceivedto disagree with that opinion. They argued that people differin their willingness to self-censor and introduced an 8-itemself-report instrument, the Willingness to Self-Censor scale,to measure this individual difference. The results of an experimentalstudy presented here provide further evidence of the constructvalidity of the scale. Each participant in the study was presentedwith a hypothetical scenario that contained information suggestinga group of people the participant was conversing with abouta controversial topic held opinions that were either uniformlysimilar to or different from the participant’s own opinion.Four weeks prior, each participant had responded to the Willingnessto Self-Censor scale and a measure of dispositional shyness.As expected, the manipulation of the climate of opinion affectedwillingness to express an opinion to the group, but more soamong those who scored relatively high on the Willingness toSelf-Censor scale. These results support the notion that somepeople rely on information about the climate of opinion moreso than do others when they decide whether or not to voice theiropinion publicly, and they suggest that the Willingness to Self-Censorscale measures this individual difference.  相似文献   

14.
This study examines the issue of who tends to speak out against the tide of opinions on an online discussion forum and which forum conditions facilitate an individual’s public expression of honest opinions. In response to the call for experimental research, this study employed simulated online forums to place participants in multifaceted hostile online discussion situations. The findings indicate that an individual’s race, issue involvement, issue knowledge, fear of isolation, and the revelation of identity influenced opinion expression online. In particular, fear of isolation, which has been pointed out as the main reason for silencing minority opinion holders, played an unexpected role as a motivator for frank expression of opinions online.  相似文献   

15.
This paper analyzes opinion formation in the cases of threemediated conflicts using a complex model that evaluates therespondents' value systems, the coverage of the mass media used,the recipients' familiarity with specific events occurring inthe conflicts, and their positions on the issues. The modelpredicts that the recipients' long-term value systems influencetheir positions on the issue in two ways. Firstly, value systemshave a direct impact on the short-term positions on an issue.Secondly, value systems have an indirect impact on the positionsof issues by influencing the recipients' selection of news mediaand thus the type and amount of news information they are exposedto. The type and amount of news influences how knowledgeablethey are of the events related to the conflicts. The familiaritywith these events influences their positions on the issues.Value systems, media usage, familiarity and positions on theissues were measured in a survey. A parallel content analysisexamined the coverage of the conflicts in the German mass media(press, radio, television) during the six-month time frame priorto the survey. Both data sets were merged in order to give anestimate of the information each recipient was exposed to. Theresults of multiple regression analyses support the theoreticalmodel. Furthermore, this paper discusses the relevance of themodel for the analysis of opinion formation as well as the limitationsof the model.  相似文献   

16.
The capacity of the mass media to cover issues as well as thecapacity of recipients to be concerned about issues is limited.The coverage on and the concern about new issues will consequentlyremove old issues from the agenda of both the mass media andthe general public. The present study investigates two modelsof this process of issue competition. The equal-displacementmodel assumes that a rise of one issue in the media by a givennumber of stories is matched by an equal fall in all other issuessumming up to a similar number of issues. The restructuringmodel assumes that unexpected, surprising or otherwise newsworthyevents create killer issues that move several other issues completelyoff the agenda and leave others untouched. A content analysisof all news shows of the two major TV stations in Germany and53 weekly surveys regarding 16 different issues covering thewhole year 1986 shows that—within the media agenda—therewere no killer issues affecting the coverage of the TV stations.In the public agenda, however, some killer issues could be identified.Coverage of these issues increased public concern about themand decreased concerns about other issues. Consequences of theseresults for agenda-setting theory and for politics are discussed.  相似文献   

17.
This study examined multiple factors associated with the processof public opinion including relevant predispositions, mediause, interpersonal discussion, and perceptions of communityopinion in order to test a theoretical model of public opinion.We conceptualized these factors as intrapersonal, media, andsocial ‘filters’ within the public opinion process.To test the impact of these filters, we conducted a survey withtwo independent samples—the first sample was collectedduring the introduction phase of a community ballot issue andthe second just a week before the issue vote. Findings indicateall three filters impacted public opinion regarding the ballotissue. Within these filters, important subprocesses were analyzedto better understand each filter's contribution to the formationof public opinion. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression equationsused to test the proposed process model revealed that the intrapersonalfilter accounted for a substantial amount of the overall variancein public opinion, but that media and social filters were alsoimportant predictors. Results highlight the importance of communicationvariables in the formation of public opinion. Received for publication May 4, 2006. Accepted for publication April 19, 2007.  相似文献   

18.
The present study integrates two concepts: the notion of opinionleadership, as conceptualized and measured by the Strength ofPersonality (SP) scale, and the agenda-setting process. Thus,we suggest and test a two-step flow model in which certain individuals,the influentials, identify emerging issues in the mass mediaand then diffuse these issues to others via their personal networks.Based on a series of six national surveys conducted in Germany(1990) measuring issue salience and various personal characteristics,this study highlights the role certain individuals play in theemergence of the public agenda. The degree to which individualscan be influenced, measured by the SP scale, is found to bea powerful predictor of the formation of personal agendas, withhigh SP individuals differing from others in their identificationof emerging public issues. However, the analysis reveals thecomplexity of these relationships: they depend on the obtrusivenessof the issue, and they vary over time and location (East orWest Germany). The findings encourage the empirical pursuitof the suggested ‘two-step flow model’ as appliedto the agenda-setting process.  相似文献   

19.
The Australian High Court's decision on the Mabo case, allowingnative title to Aboriginal Australians, became the major politicalissue during the second half of 1993. The Labor party's championingof this issue is suggestive of a fundamental change in Australianpolitics as predicted by ‘new politics’ theoristssuch as Ronald Inglehart. This paper examines the formationof opinions on the Mabo with particular reference to new politics.Several theoretical approaches to the formation of attitudesto political issues are examined. These comprise the new politics,political partisanship, nonattitudes, rational choice, asttitudinalpredispositions, and group socialization approaches. Littlesupport was found for the standard postmaterialist/materialistcleavage, although aspects of the new politics thesis were supportedas were aspects of the other approaches. In the light of thesefindings we outline a model of public opinion incorporatingelements of each approach.  相似文献   

20.
This study draws on a sample of participants in online groupsto analyze the interaction between individual-level and communicative-levelfactors that affect public opinion perception. We first assessthe association between individual views on several issues—thedeath penalty, gun regulation and teaching morality in publicschools—and false consensus, i.e., the tendency to attributeown views to others. We also examine whether the associationbetween individual opinion and false consensus is mitigatedby perceived disagreement with offline discussion networks andwith participants in online discussion groups. As expected,not only is there a correlation between personal and perceivedopinion, but also those who strongly favor the three policiesestimate public support to be higher than do those who are unfavorableor moderate. Multivariate models further show that encounteringdisagreement, online or offline, attenuates the associationbetween the individual opinion and false consensus. Theoreticaland practical implications of these findings are discussed.  相似文献   

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