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991.
Coaches believe world-ranking lists are a reliable tool for predicting international swimming performance. To examine the relationship between world-ranking and Olympic performance, we modelled world-ranking time and best time from the 2000 Olympic Games for 407 top-50 world-ranked swimmers. Analysis of log-transformed times yielded within-athlete and between-athlete coefficients of variation (CV) and percent changes in performance from world-rankings to Olympics. Variations and performance progressions were compared across sex, stroke, distance, nation and medal status. The within-athlete coefficient of variation of performance for all swimmers was 0.8% (95% confidence limits: 0.7 to 0.9%). Females were slightly less consistent, although not substantially different to males (ratio of female/male within-athlete CV: 1.1; 95% confidence limits: 1.0 to 1.2) and had a wider range of talent (ratio of female/male between-athlete CV: 1.2; 95% confidence limits: 1.1 to 1.4). Swimmers from Australia (AUS) were more consistent than those from the United States (USA) and other nations (OTHER) (ratio of within-athlete CV, USA/AUS: 1.5; 95% confidence limits: 1.0 to 2.2; OTHER/ AUS: 1.6; 95% confidence limits: 1.2 to 2.1). Most Olympic medallists (87%) had a top-10 world-ranking. Overall performance time at the Olympics was slower than world-ranking time by 0.3% (95% confidence limits: 0.2 to 0.4%), medallists improved by 0.6% (95% confidence limits: 0.4 to 0.9%) and non-medallists swam 0.6% slower (95% confidence limits: 0.5 to 0.7%). We conclude that a top-10 ranked swimmer who can improve performance time by 0.6%, equivalent to 0.13 s in the men's 50-m freestyle, will substantially increase their chance of an Olympic medal (the difference between first and fourth place). 相似文献
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Tape recordings were made of six white and six black ninth-grade northern boys speaking identically worded answers to typical school questions. Black students were given significantly higher grades than white students by 56 white and 50 black southern teachers. Black teachers gave significantly higher grades than white teachers, but no significant interaction was found between students' and teachers' ethnic group. The study is a partial replication of a previous study in which it was found that black students were given significantly lower grades than white students by northern white teachers. 相似文献
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