对2008年奥运会中国田径运动成绩的预测及对策   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

王远彪  魏家俊 《辽宁体育科技》2005,27(1):72-74

在对比分析了各种体育成绩预测方法后，选取灰色控制系统中的GM(1，1)模型建模方法，建立发展趋模型，对2008年中国田径运动成绩进行预测，并对预测结果进行分析，从而为中国田径运动备战2008年奥运会提出建议和对策。  相似文献   

应用线性回归法评价身体形态、发育水平的几个问题的探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

马勇占 《中国体育科技》2002,38(1):56-58

通过对１ ２００名中、小学生体质调研数据的主成分分析，筛选出反映身体形态发育水平的指 标，然后，进行逐步回归分析，建立评价学生身体形态发育匀称度的二元回归方程，并对所 建方程与有关文献提出的评价方程进行了对比分析，探讨两类回归方程的预测精度。  相似文献   

幼儿对具初速度物体下落轨迹的预测及其学前教育意义     

鄢超云 《幼儿教育》2006,(11)

通过研究幼儿对水平方向具有初速度的物体在失去支撑情况下运动轨迹的预测,从力和运动的角度探究了幼儿的朴素物理理论发展水平.结果表明,幼儿是根据自己的理论作出预测的,他们能在水平方向的运动和垂直方向的运动之间作出积极的"整合",表现出极大的主动性.幼教工作者应该尊重幼儿的已有理论,运用预测等策略,促进幼儿在理论和证据之间积极作出协调.  相似文献   

On the Rationality of Inconsistent Predictions: The March Madness Paradox     

Rory Smead 《体育哲学杂志》2016,43(1):163-169

There are circumstances in which we want to predict a series of interrelated events. Faced with such a prediction task, it is natural to consider logically inconsistent predictions to be irrational. However, it is possible to find cases where an inconsistent prediction has higher expected accuracy than any consistent prediction. Predicting tournaments in sports provides a striking example of such a case and I argue that logical consistency should not be a norm of rational predictions in these situations.  相似文献   

Football experts versus sports economists: Whose forecasts are better?     

Bernd Frick  Pamela Wicker 《European Journal of Sport Science》2016,16(5):603-608

Given the uncertainty of outcome in sport, predicting the outcome of sporting contests is a major topic in sport sciences. This study examines the accuracy of expert predictions in the German Bundesliga and compares their predictions to those of sports economists. Prior to the start of each season, a set of distinguished experts (head coaches and players) express their subjective evaluations of the teams in school grades. While experts may be driven by irrational sentiments and may therefore systematically over- or underestimate specific teams, sports economists use observable characteristics to predict season outcomes. The latter typically use team wage bills given the positive pay–performance relationship as well as other factors (average team age, tenure, appearances on national team, and attendance). Using data from 15 consecutive Bundesliga seasons, the predictive accuracy of expert evaluations and sports economists is analysed. The results of separate estimations show that relative grade and relative wage bill significantly affect relative points, while age, tenure, appearances, and attendance are insignificant. In a joint model, relative grade and relative wage bill are still statistically significant, suggesting that the two types of predictions are complements rather than substitutes. Consequently, football experts and sports economists seem to rely on completely different sources of information when making their predictions.  相似文献   

Prediction and the Periodical Aspect as Generators of Knowledge in a Social Practice Framework     

Gabriela?BuendíaEmail author  Francisco?Cordero 《Educational Studies in Mathematics》2005,58(3):299-333

We start from the assumption that school mathematics knowledge could be better explained if social practices were considered to be generators of knowledge. This perspective changes the way we look at what school mathematics knowledge is and what it takes to teach and learn it. In this article, we will present a teaching situation about periodic functions, which was designed with this perspective in mind. The design was based on the assumption that the scientific notion of periodic function is related with the social practice of prediction. In the situation, prediction as a social practice is transformed into a situational line of argument which redefines that which is periodical. The situation brings into play meanings for the repetition of a movement, which takes place in time in the context of graphs of functions. Our analysis of the situation will focus on the prediction tools that participants generated in order to define that which is periodical. We will conclude with some implications of our observations for the teaching of mathematics.  相似文献   

Prediction of valid acidity in intact apples with Fourier transform near infrared spectroscopy     

刘燕德  应义斌  傅霞萍 《Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B》2005,(3)

INTRODUCTION Consumers’ acceptance of fresh or processedapples is the ultimate goal of apple breeders, foodscientists and supermarket managers. Internal qualityassessment has focused on two major objectives:removal of fruit with internal defects and taste selec-tion. Three major parameters including sugar content,acidity and firmness have to be taken into account todetermine the internal quality and the taste of an apple.Near infrared spectroscopy has been used to measureseveral properti…  相似文献   

修正型PNGV构架的锂电池SOC预测及内阻识别     

黄锋  问朋朋  汪兴兴  孙书刚 《实验室研究与探索》2020,(1):37-41

荷电状态(SOC)是电动汽车动力电池的核心性能指标。为了进一步提高锂离子电池组单体电池荷电状态预测精度,提出一种基于改进PNGV模型的电池内阻辨识与SOC预测。根据锂离子动力电池的特性分析,建立改进型PNGV模型。利用实验采集的数据和最小二乘算法实现内阻的在线识别。通过该内阻辨识算法,更加准确地反映电池的当前电压。根据预测更加准确的电压,从而提出基于数据融合PHM法预测电池的SOC,该方法基于实验数据和灰色预测模型来估算电池的荷电状态。仿真和实验结果表明,基于内阻辨识的SOC预测更准确,具有较强的工程实用性。  相似文献   

小波提升格式算法及其在地震波处理中的应用     

胡宁杰 《河南科技学院学报》2006,34(1):99-102

为快速寻求合适的小波变换，研究了小波变换的提升格式及构造小波处理地震波问题。针对地震波的特点找到合适的预测算子，构造了第二代小波进行预测，并以应用实例加以验证。结果表明：计算结果符合实际情况，计算方法快速便捷，易于根据具体情况进行修正和调整。  相似文献   

对山西城镇居民家庭消费性支出的预测分析     

高采文  王钰  李济洪 《雁北师范学院学报》2005,21(5):31-32

运用SAS软件系统中的时间序列建模方法对1981-2000年山西城镇居民家庭人均全年消费性支出建立了ARIMA模型，并做了预测分析，得到了较高的预测精度，为家庭人均全年消费性支出的预测提供了一种方便实用的方法．  相似文献