2007年中国经济增长形势分析与预测          下载免费PDF全文

杨晓光  欧阳亮  程建华 《中国科学院院刊》2007,22(1):6-14

2006年中国经济整体呈现出“增长速度较快、物价走势平稳、经济效益显著改善”的良好局面。展望2007年,尽管存在世界经济增长减缓、国际国内市场资源品价格居高不下、国内粗放的经济增长方式短期内难有彻底改变等若干不利因素,但中国经济的巨大内在增长动力依然没有改变。经济景气指数分析和计量预测模型均表明,2007年中国经济仍将继续保持高速增长的态势,2007年年底增长速度有可能小幅回落。预测结果显示,2007年GDP增长率约为9.8%,工业增加值增速为15.8%,城镇固定资产投资完成额大约增长23.5%,社会消费品零售总额大约增长14.1%。  相似文献   

关于资源枯竭型城市转型及经济增长的思考     

王世明  梅晓仁  张家善 《科技与管理》2006,8(5):7-9

进入工业化社会阶段的中期，我国的资源型枯竭城市应转变经济增长方式，吸收和借鉴国外经济转型的经验，逐步走集约型方式发展的道路，从而为这些城市的可持续发展创造良好的条件。据此，对我国资源枯竭型城市转型的现状进行了分析，有针对性地提出了一些促进经济结构调整的对策。  相似文献   

我国人才资源向人才资本转变的机理研究     

苗维亚  田敏  张林祥 《中国软科学》2007,(9):125-135

在新兴经济时代,科技是第一生产力更加体现在实现人才资源向人才资本的高效转化程度上。人才资本的数量和质量是促进科学技术的进步和科学技术转化为现实的生产力,进而推动经济增长的非常关键的要素。本文对人才资源向人才资本转变的机理进行了探讨,分析了我国人才资源向人才资本转变的三个推动力,提出了人才资本的价值量包括隐形资本和显形资本两部分,人才资本的三种价值形态,以及基于语言值的人才资源向人才资本转变的模型。  相似文献   

中国农情遥感监测研究   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

吴炳方 《中国科学院院刊》2004,19(3):202-205,241

本文简介了“全球农情遥感速报系统”的基本情况,包括作物长势监测、主要作物产量预测、粮食产量预测、时空结构监测和粮食供需平衡预警等五个子系统。具体介绍了该系统提供的信息产品的应用,包括国内外农作物长势监测、作物和粮食产量估算、种植结构监测、复种指数监测以及旱情监测等内容;同时就系统应用时存在的问题提出了建议。  相似文献   

试论耕地占用与GDP增长的脱钩研究副标题用   总被引：24，自引：8，他引：24  

陈百明  杜红亮   《资源科学》2006,28(5):36-42

我国人均耕地资源匮乏,耕地占用压力十分巨大,为深入分析和认识耕地占用与GDP增长的关系,可以应用Decoupling(脱钩)理论与分析方法,开展我国耕地占用与GDP增长的脱钩研究。其主要思路是在全面分析、对比和总结国内外不同GDP增长阶段耕地保护政策的基础上,建立基于DPR(驱动力-压力-响应)系统的耕地占用与GDP增长之间的脱钩指标体系,应用脱钩指标分析耕地占用和GDP增长之间的相互关系,在此基础上通过DPR(GDP增长驱动力-耕地占用压力-政策响应)系统,建立耕地占用与GDP增长脱钩的新型管理制度,最后应用上述框架模式,分别按省、地、县三级选取一些典型区域进行同尺度之间的实证分析,并进行跟踪分析,以验证耕地占用与GDP增长脱钩指标及相应的管理制度和政策的实施效果,揭示我国各类区域耕地占用与GDP增长的相互关系的典型模式,提升耕地保护研究 的理论水平与促进我国的耕地保护工作。  相似文献   

唐山城乡居民消费对经济增长影响差异化的实证分析     

冬佳  刘岭 《科学与管理》2016,(6):64-68

作为多年来经济总量位居河北省第一位的唐山市,这几年国民经济得到了飞速发展,消费需求总量的逐步扩大在一定程度上对经济增长的拉动起到了举足轻重的作用。本文建立了城乡居民消费水平与唐山经济增长关系的误差修正模型,研究表明唐山城乡居民消费对其经济增长有正向拉动作用,城镇居民消费的拉动作用比农村居民的要大。因而,采取措施缩小城乡居民消费的差距,统筹二者的发展,是唐山完成两个"率先"的目标、建成全面小康社会不得不面对的问题。  相似文献   

Externalizing behavior problems and interest in reading as predictors of later reading skills and educational aspirations     

《Contemporary educational psychology》2017

This study examined the developments in children’s externalizing problems and interest in reading during their first four years of school (Grades 1–4) and investigated whether this development predicted the children’s Grade 6 reading skills and educational aspirations. Data comprised (1) teachers’ ratings of externalizing problems and children’s (N = 642; 43% girls) self-ratings of their interest in reading, collected between Grades 1 and 4, and (2) measures of reading fluency and comprehension, and children’s self-reports of educational aspirations, collected at Grade 6. First, latent growth modeling showed that a higher level of externalizing problems in Grade 1 was associated with a lower concurrent interest in reading. Second, a positive association between the initial level of interest in reading and a linear change in externalizing problems indicated that children with a lower interest in reading in Grade 1 were rated by teachers as exhibiting higher levels of externalizing problems, which nonetheless declined over the course of their first four years of school more than among other children. Third, a higher initial level of externalizing problems with a linear change in these problems across Grades 1–4 was a predictor of lower subsequent educational aspirations and poorer reading comprehension in Grade 6. Analysis of the indirect effects indicated that a higher level of externalizing problems was associated with a lower concurrent interest in reading, which, in turn, was related to poorer future reading fluency and lower educational aspirations. The findings imply that problem behaviors are interlinked with academic skill development and motivation across the first six years of school.  相似文献   

Identifying pathways of teachers’ PCK development     

Dirk S. Wongsopawiro  Rosanne C. Zwart  Jan H. van Driel 《Teachers and Teaching》2017,23(2):191-210

This paper describes a method of analysing teacher growth in the context of science education. It focuses on the identification of pathways in the development of secondary school teachers’ pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) by the use of the interconnected model of teachers’ professional growth (IMTPG).The teachers (n = 12) participated in a one-year action research project focused on their individual concerns related to teaching science. The use of the IMTPG revealed that teachers use different pathways of learning to develop different aspects of their PCK. For each PCK component, three distinct pathways could be identified, two of which clearly were associated with professional growth. When examining these two pathways in detail, it was found that (1) teachers learned about new instructional strategies and assessment methods mostly through literature reviews and discussions with peers and (2) teachers who analyzed and reflected on student learning as it happened in their classrooms developed understandings that helped them to select and apply instructional strategies to further promote student learning. Both the analytical method as well as the identification of the different developmental pathways help to better understand teacher development in the context of classroom practices.  相似文献   

Meeting the Great Challenge: What Growth-Oriented Writing of the 1960s and 1970s can Teach Us about Uniting the Individualistic and Social Aims of English Education     

Cori McKenzie 《Changing English: An International Journal of English Teaching》2017,24(1):91-102

This study explores the relationship between two values that sit at the heart of English education: a commitment to democratic citizenship and a commitment to fostering students’ personal growth. Some scholars have argued that these values are often at odds and the ‘great challenge’ of the field is to unite the individualistic and social goals of English education. The study explores the commensurability of these aims by considering the way they were united in the growth-oriented practitioner writing composed in the decade after the Anglo-American Seminar on the Teaching of English in 1966. To conduct the study, I examined English Journal articles written between 1968 and 1978 to see if articles that emphasised students’ personal growth also attended to the goal of democratic citizenship. The analysis shows that while it may be rare for advocates of the personal growth model to attend to students’ development as citizens, these goals are not inherently incompatible. I conclude with closing remarks on what this study suggests about how the field might meet the ‘great challenge’ of uniting the individualistic and social aims of English.  相似文献   

对皖南山区农业生产活动外部不经济性问题的思考     

张乐勤 《黄山学院学报》2007,9(1):102-104

贫困山区农业生产活动(如毁林培植茯苓、天麻、香菇、木耳,随意捕猎、采挖珍稀野生动植物等)对环境资源造成巨大压力。以生态破坏为代价的发展不仅不能解决贫困问题,反而会加剧贫困,导致恶性循环,探索纠正山区农业生产活动的外部不经济对策不仅具有经济上的必要性,而且是实现环境良性循环的前提条件。  相似文献