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Coaches believe world-ranking lists are a reliable tool for predicting international swimming performance. To examine the relationship between world-ranking and Olympic performance, we modelled world-ranking time and best time from the 2000 Olympic Games for 407 top-50 world-ranked swimmers. Analysis of log-transformed times yielded within-athlete and between-athlete coefficients of variation (CV) and percent changes in performance from world-rankings to Olympics. Variations and performance progressions were compared across sex, stroke, distance, nation and medal status. The within-athlete coefficient of variation of performance for all swimmers was 0.8% (95% confidence limits: 0.7 to 0.9%). Females were slightly less consistent, although not substantially different to males (ratio of female/male within-athlete CV: 1.1; 95% confidence limits: 1.0 to 1.2) and had a wider range of talent (ratio of female/male between-athlete CV: 1.2; 95% confidence limits: 1.1 to 1.4). Swimmers from Australia (AUS) were more consistent than those from the United States (USA) and other nations (OTHER) (ratio of within-athlete CV, USA/AUS: 1.5; 95% confidence limits: 1.0 to 2.2; OTHER/ AUS: 1.6; 95% confidence limits: 1.2 to 2.1). Most Olympic medallists (87%) had a top-10 world-ranking. Overall performance time at the Olympics was slower than world-ranking time by 0.3% (95% confidence limits: 0.2 to 0.4%), medallists improved by 0.6% (95% confidence limits: 0.4 to 0.9%) and non-medallists swam 0.6% slower (95% confidence limits: 0.5 to 0.7%). We conclude that a top-10 ranked swimmer who can improve performance time by 0.6%, equivalent to 0.13 s in the men's 50-m freestyle, will substantially increase their chance of an Olympic medal (the difference between first and fourth place). 相似文献
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Estimates of progression and variability of athletic performance in competitions are useful for researchers and practitioners interested in factors that affect performance. We used repeated-measures mixed modelling to analyse 676 official race times of 26 US and 25 Australian Olympic swimmers in the 12-month period leading up to the 2000 Olympic Games. Progression was expressed as percent changes in mean performance; variability was expressed as the coefficient of variation in performance of an individual swimmer between races. Within competitions, both nations showed similar improvements in mean time from heats through finals (overall 1.2%; 95% confidence limits 1.1 to 1.3%). Mean competition time also improved over 12 months by a similar amount in both nations (0.9%; 95% confidence limits 0.6 to 1.2%). The US swimmers showed a greater improvement between the finals (a difference of 0.5%; 95% confidence limits ?0.2 to 1.1%), which paralleled changes in the medal haul of the two nations. The coefficient of variation in performance time for a swimmer between races was 0.60% (95% confidence limits 0.56 to 0.65%) within a competition and 0.80% (95% confidence limits 0.73 to 0.86%) between competitions. Our results show that: (a) to stay in contention for a medal, an Olympic swimmer should improve his or her performance by ～1% within a competition and by ～1% within the year leading up to the Olympics; (b) an additional enhancement of ～0.4% (one-half the between-competition variability) would substantially increase the swimmer's chances of a medal. 相似文献
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Ion Trewin Charles Husband Peter Douglas Louis L. Snyder Leo Bogart Marcellus S. Snow 《Communication Booknotes Quarterly》2013,44(10):124-128
Ion Trewin's The Professions: Journalism (North Pomfret, Vt.: David & Charles, 1976—$9.95) Charles Husband (ed.) White Media and Black Britain: A Critical Look at the Role of the Media in Race Relations Today (London: Arrow Books, Ltd., 1975—about $3.50, paper) Peter Douglas' Television Today (London: Osprey Publishing, 1975—about $9.00) Louis L. Snyder's Encyclopedia of the Third Reich (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1976—$24.95) Leo Bogart's Premises for Propaganda: The United States Information Agency's Operating Assumptions in the ColdWar (New York: Free Press, 1976—$12.95) Marcellus S. Snow's International Commercial Satellite Communications: Economic and Political Issues of the First Decade of Intelsat (New York: Praeger Special Studies, 1976—$16.50) Charles Sherman and Donald Browne (eds) Broadcast Monographs No. 2: Issues in International Broadcasting (BEA, 1771 N. St. NW, Washington D.C. 20036—$5.00, with a $4.00 price to BEA members, paper) Access: Technology and Access to Communications Media by B.R. Webster (54 pp., $2.65, paper) Towards Realistic Communication Policies: Recent Trends and Ideas Compiled and Analysed by John A.R. Lee (59 pp., $2.65, paper) Mehra Masani, Broadcasting and the People (179 pp., Rs 10.25, paper) Narayana Menon, The Communications Revolution (89 pp., Rs 5.75, paper) 相似文献
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Estimates of progression and variability of athletic performance in competitions are useful for researchers and practitioners interested in factors that affect performance. We used repeated-measures mixed modelling to analyse 676 official race times of 26 US and 25 Australian Olympic swimmers in the 12-month period leading up to the 2000 Olympic Games. Progression was expressed as percent changes in mean performance; variability was expressed as the coefficient of variation in performance of an individual swimmer between races. Within competitions, both nations showed similar improvements in mean time from heats through finals (overall 1.2%; 95% confidence limits 1.1 to 1.3%). Mean competition time also improved over 12 months by a similar amount in both nations (0.9%; 95% confidence limits 0.6 to 1.2%). The US swimmers showed a greater improvement between the finals (a difference of 0.5%; 95% confidence limits -0.2 to 1.1%), which paralleled changes in the medal haul of the two nations. The coefficient of variation in performance time for a swimmer between races was 0.60% (95% confidence limits 0.56 to 0.65%) within a competition and 0.80% (95% confidence limits 0.73 to 0.86%) between competitions. Our results show that: (a) to stay in contention for a medal, an Olympic swimmer should improve his or her performance by approximately 1% within a competition and by approximately 1% within the year leading up to the Olympics; (b) an additional enhancement of approximately 0.4% (one-half the between-competition variability) would substantially increase the swimmer's chances of a medal. 相似文献
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