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This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010–2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition’s goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team’s own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.  相似文献   
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Spin bowling is generally coached using a standard technical framework, but this practice has not been based upon a comparative biomechanical analysis of leg-spin and off-spin bowling. This study analysed the three-dimensional (3D) kinematics of 23 off-spin and 20 leg-spin bowlers using a Cortex motion analysis system to identify how aspects of the respective techniques differed. A multivariate ANOVA found that certain data tended to validate some of the stated differences in the coaching literature. Off-spin bowlers had a significantly shorter stride length (p = 0.006) and spin rate (p = 0.001), but a greater release height than leg-spinners (p = 0.007). In addition, a number of other kinematic differences were identified that were not previously documented in coaching literature. These included a larger rear knee flexion (p = 0.007), faster approach speed (p < 0.001), and flexing elbow action during the arm acceleration compared with an extension action used by most of the off-spin bowlers. Off-spin and leg-spin bowlers also deviated from the standard coaching model for the shoulder alignment, front knee angle at release, and forearm mechanics. This study suggests that off-spin and leg-spin are distinct bowling techniques, supporting the development of two different coaching models in spin bowling.  相似文献   
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