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波罗的海运价指数波动规律研究与预测 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
李正宏 《上海海事大学学报》2004,25(4):69-72
以波罗的海国际干散货运价指数(BFI)为研究对象,分析其长期趋势性波动规律,得到BFI的长期波动服从幂函数模型。结合统计分析工具分析BFI的季节性波动规律,得到每月的季节指数。在剔除趋势性和季节性因素后,建立ARMA预测模型,并进行拟合和误差分析。结果表明,ARMA预测模型对BFI指数的短期预测效果很好,特别是一步预测精度很高。 相似文献
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Plaisant O Courtois R Toussaint PJ Mendelsohn GA John OP Delmas V Moxham BJ 《Anatomical sciences education》2011,4(6):305-310
Assessment of the personalities of medical students could enable medical educators to formulate strategies for the best development of academic and clinical competencies. In this article, we focus on the experience of students in the anatomy dissecting room. While there have been many attempts to evaluate the emotional responses of medical students to human cadaveric dissection, there has been no investigation into how different personality traits affect the responses. The main hypothesis tested was that there is a relationship between personality traits and attitudes toward the dissection room. For the present study, a group of French medical students (n = 403; mean age 21.3 ± 1.6; 65.3% female) completed a "Big Five" personality inventory and a questionnaire to assess their attitudes in regard to human dissection. The findings are consistent with our hypothesis, in that we found a relationship between reporting anxiety and four of the "Big Five" dimensions (all except openness). The rated level of anxiety was positively correlated with negative affectivity, more strongly at the beginning than at the end of the course. There were significant gender differences in attitudes toward dissection. The findings are discussed in relation to the possibility of preparing students for the dissecting room experience and also in relation to the students' understanding of mortality issues. 相似文献
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研究了大学生人际交往中的禀赋效应与大五人格之间的关系。采用大五人格问卷和编制的“大学生人际交往禀赋效应”问卷对来自南京3所高校的148名被试者进行测试。结果发现．编制的“大学生人际交往禀赋效应“问卷具有一定的信度和效度．禀赋效应与大五人格各维度之间不存在明显的相关性。 相似文献
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黑河上游地区基流分割及其变化特征分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
基流是枯水期河川径流的主要来源,是一种比较稳定的径流组成部分,对于干旱内流河流域水文模拟和水资源开发利用至关重要。本文基于1979年-2008年莺落峡水文站的实测流量资料,采用数字滤波法中的单参数数字滤波法和递归数字滤波法对内陆河流域黑河上游的流量过程进行了基流分割研究。探讨了黑河上游年基流量和基流指数BFI的年内与年际变化特征,以及不同水平年基流指数BFI变化规律。研究表明,黑河上游基流量年内变化为先增后减,峰值出现在8月份,基流指数则是先减后增,6月份最小。受气温升高和融雪径流影响,黑河上游基流量年际变化呈增加趋势,而基流指数呈减少趋势。在不同水平年,枯水年份的平均基流指数BFI为O．577,平水年为0．551,丰水年为0．521。 相似文献
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