| 组合预测权系数确定的一种合作对策方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈华友.组合预测权系数确定的一种合作对策方法[J].预测,2003,22(1):75-77,32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈华友 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽大学,数学系,安徽,合肥,230039;中国科学技术大学,数学系,安徽,合肥,230026 |
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| 摘 要： | 从对策论的观点出发，把组合预测中各单项预测模型视为合作对策的局中人，把组合预测的误差平方和视为合作的结果，再按Shapley值法在各单项预测模型中进行分配，从而获得组合预测权系数确定的一种方法。该方法具有概念清楚、涵义明确的特点，结果令人满意。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 权系数 合作对策 对策论 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2003)01-0075-03 |
A Kind of Cooperative Games Method Determining Weights of Combination Forecasting |
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| CHEN Hua-you.A Kind of Cooperative Games Method Determining Weights of Combination Forecasting[J].Forecasting,2003,22(1):75-77,32. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Hua-you |
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| Institution: | CHEN Hua-you 1,2 |
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| Abstract: | From point of game theory, the members of every possible combination forecasting model are considered as a coalition of cooperative games, sum of square error of combination forecasting is considered as a total payoff. It can be divided among the members in Shapley values in order to determining weights of combination forecasting. This method has clear concept, definite meanings and satisfactory result. |
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| Keywords: | combination forecasting weights coalition cooperative games Shapley values |
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