| "十一五"期间我国经济增长率预测及分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张文军,陈柏福."十一五"期间我国经济增长率预测及分析[J].未来与发展,2007(6):38-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张文军 陈柏福 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学,经贸学院,湖南,长沙,410079 |
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| 摘 要： | 以1953-2005年的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率为基础,应用一个时间序列模型,即ARMA模型,对我国"十一五"期间的GDP增长率作出初步预测。判断它是否位于无警区间内,并根据预测结果提出相应的对策和建议,以收未雨绸缪之效。
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| 关 键 词： | ARMA模型 中国经济增长率 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-0166（2007）06-0038-05 |
The Forecast and Analysis about the Economic Growth Rate of China From 2006 to 2010 |
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| ZHANG Wen-jun,CHEN Bai-fu.The Forecast and Analysis about the Economic Growth Rate of China From 2006 to 2010[J].Future and Development,2007(6):38-42. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wen-jun CHEN Bai-fu |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Wen-jun CHEN Bai-fu |
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| Abstract: | A time series model,ARMA model,is applied to forecast our country growth rate of GDP in the following 5 years,which is based on the growth rates of GDP in China during the period from 1953 to 2005.The results of forecast are employed to judge if the growth rate falls in the reasonable range.Early warning measures and suggestions are put forward according to the results. |
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| Keywords: | ARMA model Economic growth rate of China Forecast |
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