| 考虑土地资源占用的港口与城市经济互动发展系统仿真——以深圳市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 范厚明,李艳滨,温文华,马梦知.考虑土地资源占用的港口与城市经济互动发展系统仿真——以深圳市为例[J].资源科学,2015,37(2):398-407. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范厚明 李艳滨 温文华 马梦知 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学交通运输管理学院, 大连116026;大连海事大学战略管理与系统规划研究所, 大连116026,大连海事大学交通运输管理学院, 大连116026;大连海事大学战略管理与系统规划研究所, 大连116026,大连海事大学交通运输管理学院, 大连116026,大连海事大学交通运输管理学院, 大连116026;大连海事大学战略管理与系统规划研究所, 大连116026 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:61473053);国家发改委地区司社会公开征集研究项目(编号:2013-47-04);教育部人文社科一般项目(编号:10YJA790045)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析港口与城市经济互动发展系统结构和特征的基础上,构建了基于系统动力学(SD)的因果关系图,选取城市GDP、港口通过能力、港区占地面积、港口深水岸线长度作为状态变量,构建系统流图和系统动力学方程。以深圳市为例进行实证分析,通过对仿真模型结构和行为的检验,验证了模型的有效性。选取港口投资政策因子、岸线消耗系数、港区土地占用系数、港外土地占用系数以及表示港口业对航运服务业和港口物流业促进程度的乘数作为控制变量进行仿真,分析这些因素对港口与城市经济互动发展系统的影响。仿真结果表明,为实现深圳港口和城市2020年发展目标,需要适当的增加港口建设投资,但要避免码头重复建设带来的土地资源大量占用问题;集约利用港口土地资源,提高土地资源的利用效率;同时提升港口的物流和航运服务功能,以实现港口的转型升级。
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| 关 键 词： | 港口土地占用 城市经济 系统动力学 系统仿真 深圳市 |
System simulation research on interaction development of port and urban economy with occupation of land resources in Shenzhen |
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| FAN Houming,LI Yanbin,WEN Wenhua and MA Mengzhi.System simulation research on interaction development of port and urban economy with occupation of land resources in Shenzhen[J].Resources Science,2015,37(2):398-407. |
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| Authors: | FAN Houming LI Yanbin WEN Wenhua and MA Mengzhi |
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| Institution: | Institute of Strategy Management and System Planning, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;Transportation Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China,Institute of Strategy Management and System Planning, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;Transportation Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China,Institute of Strategy Management and System Planning, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China and Institute of Strategy Management and System Planning, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;Transportation Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on analysis of system structure and characteristics of port and urban economic growth, a cause-and-effect relation chart was established based on system dynamics. We chose city GDP, port throughput capacity, occupation of land area and length of port deepwater shoreline as state variables to build a system flow chart and system dynamics equations. Our aim was to explore the interactive developmental relationship between the port and urban economy considering the impact of port occupation of land resources on the urban economy. Shenzhen is a port city with a developed economy, but its land resources are scarce. Taking Shenzhen as an example for empirical analysis, the simulation model was verified to be effective by comparing simulation results and actual values from field investigations and the Shenzhen statistical yearbook. The policy factors of port investment, port land utilization coefficient, shoreline consumption coefficient, land utilization coefficient outside the port, and multipliers which indicate the improvement of port industry to shipping services and port logistics were chosen as control variables to conduct model simulation. Their effects on the interaction development system of port and urban economy were analyzed through basic simulation and policy simulation. We found that to achieve the development goals of Shenzhen port and city in 2020, Shenzhen needs to increase port construction investment but avoid the problems of large land occupation made by redundant construction of terminals. It also needs to intensively utilize port land resources and improve the utilization efficiency of land resources. The accelerating development of port logistics and shipping services is also needed to realize the transformation and upgrading of the port. |
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| Keywords: | port occupation of land resources port city economy system dynamics system simulation Shenzhen City |
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