| Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Water Consumption Based on the Largest Lyapunov Exponent |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵鹏 张宏伟 |
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| 作者单位： | School of Environmental Science and Engineering Tianjin University，School of Environmental Science and Engineering Tianjin University，Tianjin 300072 China，Tianjin 300072 China |
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| 摘 要： | Effective and exact short-termforecastingof urban wa-ter consumptionis veryimportant to on-line simulation andoptimal schedulingin municipal water supply management .Almost all traditional short-termpredictions use time seriesmethods,such as multi linear …
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| 关 键 词： | 短期预测 李雅普诺夫指数 混沌 城市用水量 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-30 |
Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Water Consumption Based on the Largest Lyapunov Exponent |
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| ZHAO Peng,ZHANG Hongwei.Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Water Consumption Based on the Largest Lyapunov Exponent[J].Transactions of Tianjin University,2007,13(3):191-194. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Peng ZHANG Hongwei |
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| Institution: | School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | An approach for short-term forecasting of municipal water consumption was presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of chaos theory. The chaotic characteristics of time series of urban water consumption were examined by means of the largest Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. By using the largest Lyapunov exponent a short-term forecasting model for urban water consumption was developed, which was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) approach in a case study. The result indicates that the model based on the largest Lyapunov exponent has higher prediction precision and forecasting stability than the ANN method, and its forecasting mean relative error is 9.6% within its maximum predictable time scale while it is 60.6% beyond the scale. |
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| Keywords: | largest Lyapunov exponent chaos urban water consumption short-term forecasting |
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