| 多变量灰色模型MGM（1，n）在R＆D投资预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王五祥,张维,崔和瑞,刘冰.多变量灰色模型MGM（1，n）在R＆D投资预测中的应用[J].研究与发展管理,2006,18(2):92-96,103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王五祥 张维 崔和瑞 刘冰 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]河北农业大学经贸学院,保定071001 [3]天津财经大学,天津300222 [4]华北电力大学经济管理系,保定071003 [5]保定建筑设计院,保定071001 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津市科技发展环境与保障措施研究项目（043501211-2）. |
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| 摘 要： | 对未来R＆D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要组成部分．提出一种定量分析预测方法——利用多变量灰色MGM（1，n）模型（multi—variable grey model）．研究R＆D投入与GDP所形成的复杂系统变量之间的相互影响关系，对天津市相关数据资料进行实证分析与中长期预测，为政府相关部门制订科学的科技发展规划提供有益的指导作用．
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| 关 键 词： | MGM（1 n）模型 灰色系统 研究与发展 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-8308（2006）02-0092-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-02-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-02-142005-09-14 |
Application of Grey Multi-variable Model MGM(1,n) in the R&D Investment Forecast |
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| WANG Wu-xiang,ZHANG Wei,CUI He-rui,LIU Bing.Application of Grey Multi-variable Model MGM(1,n) in the R&D Investment Forecast[J].R&d Management,2006,18(2):92-96,103. |
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| Authors: | WANG Wu-xiang ZHANG Wei CUI He-rui LIU Bing |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Managernent, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 2. College of Economics and Trade, Agriculture University of Hebei, Baoding 071001, China; 3. Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222, China; 4. Department of Economy and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China; 5. Town Architecture and Design College of Baoding, Baoding 071001, China |
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| Abstract: | Scientifically forecasting R&D devotion and it's intensity in the future is the important part of formulating S&T development programme.For quite long time,the countries throughout the world mainly adopt subjective judging method based on qualitative analysis to forecast.To make the forecast more scientific and dependable,it puts forward a quantitative forecast method.MGM(1,n)(multi-variable grey model),which is an extension of the GM(1,1) model for n-variable,is introduced to solve the problem and using it to analysis the interrelation between R&D and GDP formed in a complexity system tianjin city's correlation data was analysed and long-term forecasting was made.The conclusion can offer beneficial advice to work out S&T development programming of Tianjin. |
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| Keywords: | MGM(1 n) model grey system R&D forecasting |
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