| 我国产业结构与石油消费增长路径分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郑玉华,罗东坤,张亚芳.我国产业结构与石油消费增长路径分析[J].软科学,2013,27(2):1-5. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郑玉华 罗东坤 张亚芳 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京,102249 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大研究项目(11&ZD164);中国石油大学(北京)理论研究专项(LLYJ-2011-64);中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助项目(KYJJ2012-08-02) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在分析我国产业结构和石油消费结构变化趋势基础上,运用协整分析和向量误差纠正模型对石油消费量增长和三次产业经济增长之间的动态关系进行研究。结果显示,从长期关系上看,石油需求对第三产业的弹性系数最大,第二产业次之,由于两者的挤出效应使对第一产业的弹性系数为负;从短期调整能力来看,石油需求增长偏离长期趋势主要是受第二、第三产业的影响,但是由于影响系数较小,短期影响能力有限,我国的石油消费增长具有较强的连续性和惯性。针对产业结构和石油消费的上述联系和特点,提出了相应的政策建议。
|
| 关 键 词： | 石油消费 产业结构 协整分析 向量误差纠正模型 |
Analysis on Chinese Industrial Structure and Oil Consumption Growth |
| |
| ZHENG Yu-hua
,
LUO Dong-kun
,
ZHANG Ya-fang.Analysis on Chinese Industrial Structure and Oil Consumption Growth[J].Soft Science,2013,27(2):1-5. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHENG Yu-hua LUO Dong-kun ZHANG Ya-fang |
| |
| Institution: | (School of Business Administration,China University of Petroleum,Changping District,Beijing 102249) |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the trends of chinese industrial structure and oil consumption structure.The dynamic relationship between oil consumption growth and the three industrial economic growths are studied by methods of cointegration analysis and vector error correction model.The results indicate in long-term relationship,the elasticity of oil consumption to tertiary industry ranks first and that to the secondary industry ranks second.Due to the crowding-out effect the elasticity coefficient of oil consumption to primary industry is negative.In short-term adjustment capacity,the secondary and tertiary industries have certain ability to affect deviations from the long-run equilibrium,but the ability is limited due to the small influence coefficient.Chinese oil consumption growth has a strong continuity and inertia.The appropriate policy recommendations are suggested based on the connection between the industrial structure and oil consumption. |
| |
| Keywords: | oil consumption industrial structure cointegration vector error correction model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
