| 新型农村社会养老保险财政保障能力可持续性评估——基于政策仿真学的视角 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛惠元.新型农村社会养老保险财政保障能力可持续性评估——基于政策仿真学的视角[J].中国软科学,2012(5):68-79. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛惠元 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目，教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目，国家社会科学基金青年项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过模拟预测2010-2053年中国农村人口、财政收入、新农保覆盖率、最低标准基础养老金以及最低缴费标准等数据,对中央、地方财政对新农保的年补助数额分别占中央、地方财政收入的比重做出仿真测算。发现总体来看,2010-2053年间,只要中国经济能够实现持续稳定增长,中央和地方财政都可以负担得起新农保的财政补助。根据可持续性评估,文章提出了相应的政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 新农保 财政保障能力 可持续性 人口预测 |
Assessment on the Sustainability of Financial Security Capacity of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance:A Perspective of Policy Simulation |
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| XUE Hui-yuan.Assessment on the Sustainability of Financial Security Capacity of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance:A Perspective of Policy Simulation[J].China Soft Science,2012(5):68-79. |
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| Authors: | XUE Hui-yuan |
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| Institution: | XUE Hui-yuan(Wuhan University,Center for Social Security Studies,Wuhan 430072,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to simulating and predicting the data of Chinese rural population,fiscal revenue,new rural social endowment insurance coverage,minimum basic pension standard and minimum payment standard from 2010 to 2053,we estimate the proportions of annual central or local financial subsidy amount to new rural social endowment insurance in central or local fiscal revenue,and find that overall,in the years 2010 to 2053,as long as Chinese economy can achieve sustainable and stable growth,the central and local finance can afford the subsidies of new rural social endowment insurance.According to the sustainability assessment,this paper presents corresponding policy recommendations. |
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| Keywords: | new rural social endowment insurance financial security capacity sustainability population forecast |
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