| 基于排序logit模型的城镇就业风险分析与预测——兼论金融信用危机情形下促进我国就业的应对措施 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄波,王楚明.基于排序logit模型的城镇就业风险分析与预测——兼论金融信用危机情形下促进我国就业的应对措施[J].中国软科学,2010(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄波 王楚明 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海立信会计学院,金融学院,上海,201620 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科研创新重点项目，上海市教委重点学科建设项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据logit模型对我国就业风险进行度量和预测,结果发现:以1997年亚洲金融危机为比照,时下的金融信用危机导致我国2009-2010年城镇失业率大于6.454%的可能性几乎为100%.为化解就业风险,应充分发挥非正规就业、中小企业和民营经济的作用,积极实行产业结构调整与产业跨区域转移,注意扩张性财政和货币政策在"保增长"的同时还要"促就业",同时也要完善劳动力市场发育水平并努力提高劳动者素质.
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| 关 键 词： | 城镇就业风险 金融信用危机 排序logit模型 |
Analysis and Prediction of Chinese Town Employment Risk Based on Order Logit Model |
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| HUANG Bo,WANG Chu-ming.Analysis and Prediction of Chinese Town Employment Risk Based on Order Logit Model[J].China Soft Science,2010(4). |
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| Authors: | HUANG Bo WANG Chu-ming |
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| Institution: | HUANG Bo,WANG Chu-ming (School of Finance,Shanghai Lixin University of Commerce,Shanghai 201620,China) |
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| Abstract: | Analysis and prediction of Chinese town employment risk based on order logit model show that the probability of unemployment rate in town to be above 6.454% is almost to be 100% in 2009 and 2010 by contrast to Asia Financial Crisis in 1997.The countermeasures to promoting employment in the future including: development of informal employment and medium and small sized private-run enterprises,adjustment of industry structure and cross-regional industry transfer,employment of expansionary fiscal and monetary ... |
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| Keywords: | Town Employment Risk Financial Credit Crisis Order Logit Model |
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