| 基于RBF网络的港口投资效益预警模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李新然,吴晶晶.基于RBF网络的港口投资效益预警模型研究[J].科研管理,2010,31(1):190-196. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李新然 吴晶晶 |
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| 作者单位： | ;
（大连理工大学 管理学院，辽宁 大连116024） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金:“中国港口投资优化决策理论及风险预警研究”,项目编号:70873014,起止时间:2009.1-2011.12 |
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| 摘 要： | 摘要：本文首次引进经济预警思想对港口投资效益进行预测及评价研究。首先构建了港口投资效益预警指标体系，建立了基于RBF神经网络的港口投资效益预警模型；其次，采集九五到十五期间的各大沿海港口投资历史数据和投资效益情况对该模型进行了学习，测算了在不同扩散系数下的模型误差，结果表明当扩散系数为06时，模型的误差为9507%，说明该模型能够很好地对港口投资效益进行预测；最后，依据港口投资效益历史警情指标值设置了三个警度输出区间。
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| 关 键 词： | 港口 投资效益 RBF神经网络 预警 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-6-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-11-22 |
Research on an early warning model for the benefit of port investment based on RBF neural network |
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| Li Xinran,Wu Jingjing.Research on an early warning model for the benefit of port investment based on RBF neural network[J].Science Research Management,2010,31(1):190-196. |
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| Authors: | Li Xinran Wu Jingjing |
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| Institution: | （School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China） |
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| Abstract: | The benefit of port investment is studied by introducing the economic early warning system.First,a benefit early warning index system is constructed;the model of early warning system for the port investment effect is built based on RBF neural network.Then this model is tested through historic figures of investment and benefits from year 1996 to 2005 on Chinese costal harbors.By testing model error through different spread coefficients,it turns out that when the spread coefficient value is defined as 0.6,the... |
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| Keywords: | port investment benefit RBF neural network early warning |
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