| 风电功率波动特性分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛舒芃,;姚曈彤,;赵趯,;朱家明.风电功率波动特性分析与预测[J].铜仁学院学报,2014(4):167-171. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛舒芃 ;姚曈彤 ;赵趯 ;朱家明 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030; [2]安徽财经大学经管实验班,安徽蚌埠233030 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文系国家自然科学基金项目（61305070）;2013年国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目（201310378056）成果. |
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| 摘 要： | 风电功率波动特性的分析问题涉及到空间位置、时间窗宽、机组规模等多方面因素。通过运用SAS、Matlab、Eviews等软件，深入探讨了风电功率的最佳概率分布，不同时间间隔数据对功率波动信息的度量能力的差异，以及建立 ARMA 模型对风电功率的滚动预测等内容，从不同角度分析风电功率的波动特性，对改善风电预测精度和克服风电接入给电网造成的不利影响具有重要的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 风电功率 波动 概率分布 ARMA模型 卡方拟合优度检验 |
An Analysis and Prediction of Wind Power Variations |
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| Institution: | XUE Shu-peng, YAO Tong-tong, ZHAO Ti, ZHU Jia-ming ( 1. Institute of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, Anhui 233030, China; 2. Experimental Class for Economics and Management, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, Anhui 233030, China ) |
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| Abstract: | This analysis of wind power variations refers to the spatial location, the time interval, the unit size and so on. It analyzes the optimum probability distribution, the differences between different time intervals on measuring the power variations and the wind power prediction by building the ARMA model with applying such software as SAS, Matlab, Eviiews and so on. In general, this paper has an important meaning on improving the prediction accuracy and overcoming the adverse effects on the grid by researching the wind power variations from different points. |
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| Keywords: | wind power variations probability distribution ANOVA Chi-square goodness of fit test |
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