| 2019年中国经济核心指标预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 中国科学院预测科学研究中心.2019年中国经济核心指标预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2019,34(1):3-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 中国科学院预测科学研究中心 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190 |
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| 摘 要： | 2018年,我国经济呈现平稳下滑的态势,预计全年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率约为6.6%,比2017年下降0.3个百分点。物价走势整体平稳,呈现居民消费价格指数（CPI）温和回升、工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）和工业生产者购进价格指数（PPIRM）涨幅回落的态势。预计2019年我国经济将呈现"前降后稳,稳中有进"的态势,全年GDP增速约为6.3%左右。物价将继续保持温和上涨的态势,2019年全年CPI涨幅为2.0%左右。三大需求中,预计2019年我国进出口总额仍将继续保持稳定增长,但增速较2018年略有下降,其中进口增速略高于出口增速。以美元计价,预计2019年进出口总额增长7.9%左右,其中出口同比增长约6.6%,进口同比增长约9.4%。消费将保持平稳增长,预计2019年社会消费品零售总额同比增速约为8.5%。投资增速将略有回升,预计2019年固定资产投资增速在6%左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 物价 投资 消费 进出口 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/1/1 0:00:00 |
Forecasting China's Major Economic Indexes for 2019 |
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| Center for Forecasting Science.Forecasting China's Major Economic Indexes for 2019[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2019,34(1):3-9. |
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| Authors: | Center for Forecasting Science |
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| Institution: | Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China |
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| Abstract: | China''s GDP growth rate showed a steady slowdown quarter by quarter in 2018, it is expected to reach about 6.6% annually, 0.3 percentages points lower year on year. Prices kept stable across 2018, of which CPI showed a moderate rise, while PPI and PPIRM declined in growth rate. GDP growth is projected to slow modestly in 2019, with a slight decline from the first to the second quarter, but turn to upward in the third and fourth quarters. The annual GDP growth rate is projected to be about 6.3%. Price continues to maintain the moderate upward trend, the annual CPI is expected to increase about 2.0%. The import and export will remain robust in growth though with a lower rate over 2018, the total volume of import and export is expected to grow up by about 7.9%, of which exports rise by about 6.6%, imports rise by about 9.4% respectively. The consumption will maintain steady growth in 2019, and the total retail sales growth rate is expected around 8.5%. The growth rate of fixed-asset investment might rise slightly in 2019, it is expected to reach around 6.0%. |
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| Keywords: | economic growth price indexes investment consumption foreign trade forecasting |
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