| 用海温作江苏省春季连阴雨的预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴洪颜,武金岗,赵凯,高苹.用海温作江苏省春季连阴雨的预报模型[J].科技通报,2004,20(6):512-516. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴洪颜 武金岗 赵凯 高苹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省农业气象与卫星遥感中心,南京,210009
2. 江苏省气象局,南京,210009 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省"333"人才培养资助项目(20050) |
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| 摘 要： | 对江苏春季连阴雨和太平洋海温场的关系进仃研究,发现二者相关显著．通过对海温场的最优化处理和稳定性检验,找到强信号区．然后采用逐步回归方法,建立预报模型,经试预报效果良好．
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| 关 键 词： | 大气科学 春季连阴雨 海温 预报模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-7119(2004)06-0512-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年8月4日 |
The Forecast Model of Spring Continuous Rain in Jiangsu Province Based on Sea Surface Temperature |
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| WU Hong-yan,WU Jin-gang,ZHAO Kai,GAO Pin.The Forecast Model of Spring Continuous Rain in Jiangsu Province Based on Sea Surface Temperature[J].Bulletin of Science and Technology,2004,20(6):512-516. |
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| Authors: | WU Hong-yan WU Jin-gang ZHAO Kai GAO Pin |
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| Institution: | WU Hong-yan~1,WU Jin-gang~2,ZHAO Kai~2,GAO Pin~1 |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between SST field of the Pacific and spring continuous rain (or cloudy-rain weather for several days)in Jiangsu Province was discussed. The results showed that the correlation coefficient between them was significant. Then the strong signal area was discovered based on optimization disposal and stability test of SST field. Finally, the forecast model of spring continuous rain was formed using stepwise regression analysis. The verification proved that it has a better predictive effect. |
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| Keywords: | atmospheric science spring continuous rain SST forecast model |
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