| 新冠肺炎疫情对全球生产体系的冲击和我国产业链加速外移的风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 祝坤福,高翔,杨翠红,汪寿阳.新冠肺炎疫情对全球生产体系的冲击和我国产业链加速外移的风险分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(3):283-288. |
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| 作者姓名： | 祝坤福 高翔 杨翠红 汪寿阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 对外经贸大学 全球价值链研究院 北京 100029;中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190,中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100049,中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100049,中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100049 |
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| 摘 要： | 新冠肺炎疫情短期内严重冲击了我国生产供应,加大了国内产业链加速外移的风险。文章基于当前疫情导致我国短期生产与出口供给缺口的研究,结合我国在全球生产网络和亚洲生产链的枢纽位置,就疫情对全球产业链的冲击及其引发的我国产业链加速外移风险进行了剖析。研究结果表明,疫情引起的产能缺口将对全球生产体系产生冲击,跨国企业将加快生产链布局调整,需密切关注疫情造成部分产业链加速外移的风险。最后,就企业复工保障、疫情防控和产业链布局等方面提出相关政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 新冠肺炎 产能缺口 全球生产网络 产业链外移 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/2/26 0:00:00 |
The COVID-19 Shock on Global Production Chains and Risk of Accelerated China's Industrial Chains Outflow |
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| ZHU Kunfu,GAO Xiang,YANG Cuihong and WANG Shouyang.The COVID-19 Shock on Global Production Chains and Risk of Accelerated China''s Industrial Chains Outflow[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2020,35(3):283-288. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Kunfu GAO Xiang YANG Cuihong and WANG Shouyang |
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| Institution: | Research Institute for Global Value Chains, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China;Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China,Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China,Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China and Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has severely impacted China''s production and supply in the short term, and increased the risk of accelerated outward relocation of domestic industry chain. Based on the measuring of China''s production and export supply gaps caused by COVID-19, and key position of China in global production network and the Asian production chain, this article analyzed the COVID-19 shock on the global production chains and the risk of accelerated China''s industrial outflow. The results show that the output gaps caused by the COVID-19 will have a deep impact on the global production system, and multinational enterprises will speed up the relocation of production chains. Therefore, the increasing risk of industrial outflow should be concerned. Finally, suggestions are put forward to efforts in the COVID-19 control, coordination on economics, and the relocation of production chains. |
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| Keywords: | COVID-19 production gaps global production network industrial chains outflow |
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