| “十一五”期间我国能源需求及节能潜力预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏一鸣,廖华,范英.“十一五”期间我国能源需求及节能潜力预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2007,22(1):20-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏一鸣 廖华 范英 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京,100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;中国发展研究基金;中国科学院预测科学研究中心资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 节约能源是深入贯彻科学发展观、加快建设节约型社会的重要内容之一,我国"十一五"规划纲要提出了要实现2010年能源强度比2005年下降20%左右的目标.本文通过建立能源经济模型,分析了投资率、能源价格、技术进步等影响能源需求的关键因素,针对不同的经济增长情景,对"十一五"期间我国的能源需求和节能潜力进行了预测,提出了力争在"十一五"期间实现较低能源需求的对策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 能源需求 能源强度 价格弹性 投资率 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年12月28 |
China's Energy Demand and Conservation Potential Forecast During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period |
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| WeiYi-Ming,LiaoHua and FanYing.China's Energy Demand and Conservation Potential Forecast During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2007,22(1):20-25. |
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| Authors: | WeiYi-Ming LiaoHua and FanYing |
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| Institution: | Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, 100080 Beijing;Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, 100080 Beijing;Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, 100080 Beijing |
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| Abstract: | Saving energy is one of the crucial issues of fully implementing the scientific concept of development and building conservation-minded society. In its 11th Five Year Plan, China has set a target of reducing its energy intensity by about 20% by 2010 in respect to 2005 value. By building an energy-economy model, this paper studies the impacts of investment ratio, energy price and technological progress on energy demand, forecasts China's energy demand and conservation potential during 2006-2010 based on some possible economic growth scenarios, and puts forward policy recommendations to realize less energy demand in this period. |
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| Keywords: | energy demand energy intensity price elasticity investment ratio |
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