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| ARIMA模型在我国体育用品出口预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈颇,贾清秀,殷樱.ARIMA模型在我国体育用品出口预测中的应用[J].天津体育学院学报,2007,22(4):353-357. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈颇 贾清秀 殷樱 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西南大学,体育学院,重庆,400715 2. 安阳师范学院,体育学院,安阳,455003 3. 重庆信息工程专修学院,重庆,402160 |
| 摘 要： | 为了客观把握目前我国体育用品出口的发展现状，准确预测未来我国体育用品出口的发展趋势。收集了2004年1月至2006年8月我国体育用品出口的月度数据，进行了时间序列分析，建立了体育用品月出口额的自回归求和移动平均模型（即ARIMA模型）。结果显示：模型ARIMA（0，1，2）（0，1，1）能较为准确地预测我国体育用品出口额的月度数据，模型的预测值与实际观测值非常接近，说明时间序列模型在我国体育用品出口状况预测中具有较好的应用价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 ARIMA模型 体育用品 出口 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-0000（2007）04-0353-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-262007-06-01 |
ARIMA Model in Sporting Goods Exportation Forecast in China |
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| CHEN Po,JIA Qing-xiu,YIN Ying.ARIMA Model in Sporting Goods Exportation Forecast in China[J].Journal of Tianjin Institute of Physical Education,2007,22(4):353-357. | |
| Authors: | CHEN Po JIA Qing-xiu YIN Ying |
| Institution: | 1.School of PE, Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;2.School of PE,Anyang Normal College,Anyang 455003,China;3.Chongqing Information Engineering College, Chongqing 402160, China |
| Abstract: | In order to assurance current sporting goods exportation development in China,and forecast accurately the development tendency in the future,the sporting goods exportation monthly data was collected from January,2004 to August,2006.After the time series analysis,amount from the return summation migration average model(namely the ARIMA model) was established.Results demonstrated that the ARIMA Model(0,1,2)(0,1,1) can accurately forecast the monthly data of sporting goods export amount in China,the value of forecasting and the actual observation value extremely approached,these showed that the time series model in sporting goods exportation condition forecast has the better application value. |
| Keywords: | time series ARIMA model sporting goods exportation China |
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