| 中国：绿色发展与绿色GDP |
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| 引用本文： | 胡鞍钢.中国：绿色发展与绿色GDP[J].中国科学基金,2005,19(2):84-89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡鞍钢 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 |
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| 摘 要： | 1995年世界银行开始利用绿色GDP国民经济核算体系来衡量一国或地
区的真实国民财
富。它是指在扣除了自然资源（特别是不可再生资源）枯竭以及环境污染损失之后的一个国
家真实储蓄率。作者利用世界银行数据库分析了1970?2001年我国真实国民储蓄与自然资产
损失之间的定量关系。1985年自然资产损失占GDP比重接近20%,直到20世纪90年代以来由于
大规模
经济调整特别是能源结构调整,这一损失占GDP比重迅速下降,到1998年降为4.5%,但是此后
经济增长模式逆转,2001年又上升为6.3%。这表明,中国在过去20多年经历了“先破坏、后
保护;先污染、后治理;先耗竭、后节约;先砍林、后种树”,造成我国真实国民财富的极
大损失。这是“生态赤字”不断扩大的经济高速增长,是典型的“黑色发展”模式。作者提
出,绿色发展是今后中国发展的必选之路,既不能沿袭传统的高能耗、高污染、低效率的前
苏
联式的重工业化模式,也不能模仿和采用高消费、高消耗、高排放的发达国家的现代化模式
,必须独辟蹊径,寻求非传统的适合中国国情的社会主义现代化道路。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 绿色发展 绿色GDP |
CHINA:GREEN DEVELOPMENT AND GREEN GDP(1970-2001) |
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| Hu Angang.CHINA:GREEN DEVELOPMENT AND GREEN GDP(1970-2001)[J].Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China,2005,19(2):84-89. |
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| Authors: | Hu Angang |
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| Abstract: | World Bank began to use "Green GDP" national account to measure the real national wealth of a country or a region from 1995. It means the genuine national saving after deducting natural resource (especially the non - regenerated natural resources) depletion and environmental pollution damage. The author analyzes the quantitative relation between China s genuine national saving and natural capital depletion by using the World Bank database. In 1985, the share of China' s natural capital depletion to GDP was close to 20 % . In 1990s, this share decreased rapidly to 4.5 % in 1998 because of the large-scale adjustment of economic constitution, especially that of energy. But after that the mode of China' s growth reversed and this share increased to 6.3% in 2001 again. That means China had suffered from "protecting after destructing, fathering after polluting, saving after depleting, growing after chopping" in the past 20 years and that cause great loss of China's genuine national wealth. This is a fast growth of economy with expanding "ecological deficit" and also a typical " Black Development" mode. The author points out that green development is what China' s development must choose. China can not only follow the traditional Soviet Union' s heavy industrialization mode with high energy consumption, pollution and low efficiency but also imitate the developed countries' modernization mode with high consumption , depletion and emission. China should develop a new style of one' s own and seek a non-traditional socialistic modernization way that can fit its situation of country. |
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| Keywords: | China Green Development Green GDP |
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