| 基于时间序列分析的年最大流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴士夫,伏 琳,罗 兴.基于时间序列分析的年最大流量预测[J].长江工程职业技术学院学报,2014(1):15-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴士夫 伏 琳 罗 兴 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]长江委水文中游局赤壁分局,湖北赤壁437302 [2]长江委水文中游局河道勘测中心,武汉430012 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用时间序列分析方法，将年最大流量时间序列通过趋势项、周期项和平稳随机项的分析、识别与提取，建立时序递阶组合模型。应用该模型对毛家桥水文站年最大流量进行了预测，分析结果表明，建立的时序递阶组合模型具有较好的预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合模型 时间序列 年最大流量 |
Time Series Analysis of Annual Maximum Flow Prediction |
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| WU Shi-fu,FU Lin,LUO xing.Time Series Analysis of Annual Maximum Flow Prediction[J].Journal of Changjiang Engineering Vocational College,2014(1):15-17. |
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| Authors: | WU Shi-fu FU Lin LUO xing |
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| Institution: | 1. Changjiang Middle Reaches Hydrometric Station Chibi branch, Chibi 437302, China Changjiang Middle Reaches Hydrometric Station River Survey Center, Wuhan 430012, China) |
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| Abstract: | Time series analysis has been used to analyze, recognize and extract the annual maxi- mum flow time sequence through trend term, periodic term and common random term. Thus time series ladder combined model has been established. The model has been used to predict annual maximum flow of Maojiaqiao hydrological station. The result shows that time series ladder com- bined mode has a good effect of prediction. |
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| Keywords: | combined model time series annual maximum flow |
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