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| 城市水生态足迹变化分析与模拟 | |
| 引用本文： | 吴志峰,胡永红,李定强,匡耀求.城市水生态足迹变化分析与模拟[J].资源科学,2006,28(5):152-156. |
| 作者姓名： | 吴志峰 胡永红 李定强 匡耀求 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 广东省生态环境与土壤研究所,广州,510650;中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州,510630 2. 广东省生态环境与土壤研究所,广州,510650 3. 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州,510630 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;广东省自然科学基金 |
| 摘 要： | 本文应用生态足迹理论与方法，采用水资源与水产品消耗统计数据，对广州市1949年～1998年水生态足迹变化进行时间序列建模分析。结果显示ARIMA(2,2,2)模型能较好的拟合广州市水生态足迹变化，模型误差在5%左右。广州市1949年至1998年水生态足迹变化可划分为两个时期，1978年之前为平稳期，1978年之后呈现显著的波动上升趋势；应用ARIMA(2,2,2)预测1999年～2003年的水域生态足迹，结果分别为：0.5935hm2，0.6562 hm2，0.7147 hm2，0.7790 hm2，0.8402 hm2，模拟结果表明广州市1999年～2003年期间的人均水域生态足迹仍呈较快上升趋势，城市发展、人口增加以及生活水平提高导致水产品需求与水资源消耗的增长是水生态足迹快速增长的主要因素。 |
| 关 键 词： | 水生态足迹 ARIMA模型 时间变化 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2006）05-0152-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-30 |
Analyzing and Modeling Temporal Variation of Water Ecological Footprint in Guangzhou City of China |
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| WU Zhi-feng,HU Yong-hong,LI Ding-qiang and KUANG Yao-qiu.Analyzing and Modeling Temporal Variation of Water Ecological Footprint in Guangzhou City of China[J].Resources Science,2006,28(5):152-156. | |
| Authors: | WU Zhi-feng HU Yong-hong LI Ding-qiang and KUANG Yao-qiu |
| Abstract: | The Ecological Footprint Theory and calculation method give us a reasonable tool to quantitatively analyze the impact of human activities on the ecosystem.Quantifying water ecological footprint(WEF) is the key issue for assessment of water resource sustainability.In this paper,we calculate the Water Ecological footprint(WEF) of Guangzhou city from 1949 to 1998 and analyze its characteristics in different period.Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) was used to model the properties of WEF in Guangzhou in order to forecast its variation from 2005 to 2010.The results show that the temporal variation of WEF can be divided into two periods: steady period(before 1978) and strikingly upward fluctuant period(after 1978).The ecological footprint of aquaculture production is the dominant factor in water ecological footprint and its annually increasing extent is 6.37% on average between 1978 and 1992,which is notably related to the AEF.The deficit of AEF has also been quickly increasing since 1978,which seriously threatens the carrying capacity of the aquatic environment in Guangzhou.ARIMA(2,2,2) simulation is consistent with the variation of the WEF of Guangzhou from 1949 to 1993 and the correlation efficient is about 0.98 and the prediction error is around 5% between the calculated and the predicted data from 1994 to 2004.ARIMA(2,2,2) was used to predict WEF of Guangzhou from 2005 to 2010,the results are 0.5935hm~2,0.6562 hm~2,0.7147 hm~2,0.7790 hm~2,0.8402 hm~2 respectively.The result of forecast keep sharp upward tendency. |
| Keywords: | Water ecological footprint ARIMA model Temporal variation |
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