| 产品开发内在风险的灰色评价模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 张卓.产品开发内在风险的灰色评价模型[J].研究与发展管理,2005,17(1):37-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张卓 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院,南京,210016 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK2003211) |
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| 摘 要： | 产品开发的风险评价是确保产品获得商业成功的重要环节。传统的评价方法以财务数据为依据．通过技术经济指标体系，结合敏感性分析、概率分析和风险决策方法等，对产品开发的外在风险进行预测和评价，但却忽略其内在风险。故从市场、技术和协调性三方面阐述了企业产品开发的内在风险，提出基于灰色理论的产品开发内在风险评价模型和灰评价计算方法，为企业的产品开发决策提供有力的分析工具。
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| 关 键 词： | 产品开发 内在风险 灰评价 模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-8308(2005)01-0037-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年4月26日 |
A Grey Evaluation Model of Inherent Risk in Product Development |
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| ZHANG Zhuo.A Grey Evaluation Model of Inherent Risk in Product Development[J].R&d Management,2005,17(1):37-42. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Zhuo |
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| Abstract: | Risk evaluation in product development is a key linkage for product commercial success. Based on financial data,the traditional evaluation methods estimate and evaluate risks by engineering economic parameters with the ways of sensitivity analysis,probability theory and risk decisions. But these methods neglect non-financial risks that are inherent in product development. It analyzes the inherent risks in product development from market,technology and coordination with business strategies and resources. It then provides a grey evaluation model of internal risks in product development,and an evaluation methodology for calculating weights and evaluating matrix. It offers a strong analysis tool for product development decisions. |
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| Keywords: | product development inherent risk grey evaluation model |
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