| 以技术进步为主的我国贸易条件的影响因素研究——基于1981-2011年我国进出口商品的实证 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陆士群,杨丽华.以技术进步为主的我国贸易条件的影响因素研究——基于1981-2011年我国进出口商品的实证[J].科技与管理,2014,16(6):30-37. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陆士群 杨丽华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波,315211 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 宁波市社会科学研究基地研究课题项目，2013年宁波大学研究生科研创新基金项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文以1981-2011年主要进出口商品数量与金额数据为基础,对我国贸易条件指数进行计算,并围绕技术进步,采用分位数回归和状态空间模型对影响贸易条件的各因素进行实证分析.结果表明,技术进步有利于贸易条件的改善,对于不同分位数水平的贸易条件,技术进步的影响呈现较大的变动,有随着分位数水平的不断提高而增强的趋势,且历年技术进步对贸易条件的弹性系数具有动态变化性;此外,一国经济增长、FDI及劳动生产率也对贸易条件有显著影响.最后,基于实证研究为进一步改善我国贸易条件提出了相关政策建议.
|
| 关 键 词： | 贸易条件指数 技术进步 影响因素 分位数回归 状态空间模型 |
Factors affecting trade centering on technological progress:based on 1981-2011 China's import and export commodities |
| |
| LU Shi-qun,YANG Li-hua.Factors affecting trade centering on technological progress:based on 1981-2011 China's import and export commodities[J].Science-Technology and Management,2014,16(6):30-37. |
| |
| Authors: | LU Shi-qun YANG Li-hua |
| |
| Institution: | (Business School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the number and amount of the main export-import commodities in 1981 -2011, this paper calculates China＇ s total trade conditions, and made the empirical analysis of several factors of terms of trade centering on technical progress by means of quantile regression and state space model. The results showed that technological progress will help to improve trade. The impact of technological progress presents a greater change for different quantile levels of trade with an enhanced trend when the levels increasing. The effect degree in different quintiles levels of the terms of trade is different. In addition, enhance of the economic level, and increasing the actual utilization of FDI are major factors in improving the terms of trade. Finally, the paper puts forward relevant policy rec- ommendations to improve the terms of trade. |
| |
| Keywords: | terms of trade index technical progress influencing factors quantile regression state space model |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
