| 现阶段中国不同尺度的粮食减产类型分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张晶,封志明,杨艳昭.现阶段中国不同尺度的粮食减产类型分析[J].资源科学,2006,28(6):28-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张晶 封志明 杨艳昭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049;德州学院,德州,253023
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国粮食产量自1998年达到历史最高水平后连续下降，2003年粮食产量降至1998年后最低点。本文选取1998和2003年为典型年份，从国家、省级、县域3种尺度对中国粮食减产进行研究。通过建立粮食生产变化模型，分别计算了播种面积和单产变化导致的粮食产量变化量，分析了二者对粮食产量变化的影响。在此基础上确定了中国不同尺度粮食减产的主导因素。结果表明：①在国家尺度，粮食播种面积和粮食单位面积产量都在降低，粮食减产量的79.3%是粮食播面减少导致的，播面减少是粮食减产的主要原因; ②在省级尺度，我国有28个省级单位粮食产量在减少，总体上减产省级单位粮食播面和单产都在减少，减产量的80.7%是播种面积减少导致的，播面减少是省级单位减产的主要原因; ③我国粮食主产区的13个省级单位都在减产，减产量占减产省级单位总减产量的68.89%，总体上粮食主产区粮食播面和单产都在减少，减产量的68.8%是播种面积减少导致的，播面减少是粮食主产区减产的主要原因; ④我国县域单元中粮食减产县（市）数量占县（市）单元总量的79.44%，总体上减产县（市）播种面积和单产都在降低，减产量的75.9%是播种面积减少导致的，播面减少是县（市）粮食减产的主要原因。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 粮食减产 不同尺度 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2006）06-0028-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-30 |
Current Grain Yield Reduction at Different Spatial Scales in China |
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| ZHANG Jing,FENG Zhi-ming and YANG Yan-zhao.Current Grain Yield Reduction at Different Spatial Scales in China[J].Resources Science,2006,28(6):28-32. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jing FENG Zhi-ming and YANG Yan-zhao |
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| Abstract: | The grain yield in China has been reduced after 1998, the year when grain production reached the peak level in the history, and it turned into the lowest level in 2003. This paper discusses the types of grain yield reduction, and chooses 1998 and 2003 as representative years to study the grain yield reduction at national, provincial and county scales. In order to identify the cause of grain yield change, this paper sets up grain change model, calculates the quantities of grain change being caused by change of grain planting area and change of grain production per hectare respectively, and analyzes their effect to grain change, and discusses the dominant factor leading to the yield change at various scales. The results show that: 1) The grain yield reduction from 1998 to 2003 in China is 8 160×104t. Both grain planting area and grain production per hectare had been reduced at country scale, and 79.3% of the grain reduction is caused by the decrease of grain planting area.and the decrease of grain planting area is the main reason causing such change; 2) The grain yield in 28 provinces out of all of 31 provinces had been reduced from 1998 to 2003 by 8 327.8×104t. Both the grain planting area and the grain production per hectare have been reduced at provincial scale, and 80.7% of the grain reduction is caused by the decrease of planting area. 3) The grain yield in 13 provinces where main grain production bases have been established reduced by 5 737.2×104t from 1998 to 2003 accounting for 68.89% of the gross grain yield reduction of the rest 28 provinces. The main reason is the decrease of grain planting area; 4) About 1 615 counties, or 79.44% of the total counties in China shown grain yield reduction from 1998 to 2003, and both the grain planting area and grain production per hectare have been reduced on county scale, and 75.9% of the grain reduction is caused by the decrease of grain planting area. |
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| Keywords: | China Grain reduction Scale |
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