| 基于Lyapunov指数的高校图书馆图书借阅流量混沌预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王静,李丕仕.基于Lyapunov指数的高校图书馆图书借阅流量混沌预测[J].现代情报,2009,29(9):7-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王静 李丕仕 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学图书馆,江苏,徐州,221116 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用混沌理论对高校图书馆图书借阅流量数据时间序列进行相空间重构,分析得出高校图书馆图书借阅行为的演化具有明显的混沌特征。针对图书借阅流量在不同时间粒度各时期中的波动特点,构建了基于最大Lyapunov指数的高校图书馆图书借阅流量混沌预测模型。通过对中国矿业大学图书馆图书借阅流量的验证表明,混沌预测模型的预测结果较为合理。
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| 关 键 词： | 高校图书馆 图书借阅流量 混沌预测 Lyapunov指数 |
Chaotic Forecasting of Borrow Traffic Series Based on Lyapunov Exponent in University Library |
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| Authors: | Wang Jing Li Pishi |
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| Institution: | Library, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the chaos theory, the phase space of the university library borrow traffic time series data was restructured. The conclusion that university library borrow traffic time series data has chaotic property was deduced. According to the annual fluctuation characteristic of readers＇ borrow demand, a forecasting model on the time series with chaotic characteristics was performed . Test results for using this algorithm to forecast the short term readers＇ borrow demand of the china university of mining and technology of library were reported, and showed that the proposed algorithm could attain reasonable performance. |
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| Keywords: | university library library borrow traffic chaotic forecasting lyapunov exponent |
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