| 甘肃省城乡收入差距短期预测及长期趋势分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 保永文,岳立.甘肃省城乡收入差距短期预测及长期趋势分析[J].绵阳师范学院学报,2012,31(1):34-37,43. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 保永文 岳立 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中共重庆市涪陵区委党校,重庆涪陵,408000
2. 兰州大学经济学院,甘肃兰州,730000 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 改革开放以来，以“城镇居民人均可支配收入”与“农村人均纯收入”之比衡量的甘肃省城乡收入差距经历了缩小与扩大的交替螺旋式的发展轨迹。ARMA模型预测结果表明，在短期内，甘肃省城乡居民收入差距总体趋于缩小，但期间略有反复。基于时间序列的收敛性分析表明，甘肃省城镇居民人均可支配收入与农村居民人均纯收入的时间序列趋于收敛，即在长期内甘肃省城乡居民收入差距趋于缩小。
|
| 关 键 词： | 城乡收入差距 ARMA模型 收敛性分析 |
Short - term Forecast and Long - term Trend Analysis of Urban - rural Income Gap in Gansu Province |
| |
| BAO Yong-wen,YUE Li.Short - term Forecast and Long - term Trend Analysis of Urban - rural Income Gap in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Mianyang Normal University,2012,31(1):34-37,43. |
| |
| Authors: | BAO Yong-wen YUE Li |
| |
| Institution: | 1.CPC Fuling District Party Committee School,Fuling,Chongqing 408000); 2.School of Economics,Lan Zhou University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730000) |
| |
| Abstract: | Since the reform and opening to the outside world,the urban-rural income gap measured by the ratio of "per capita disposable income of urban residents" and "per capita net income of rural residents" in Gansu Province has experienced a spiral development direction with alternative contraction and expansion.ARMA model predicts that in the short term,urban-rural income gap in Gansu Province tends to reduce generally,but will slightly rebound in the coming two or three years.Convergence analysis based on time series shows that the time series of "per capita disposable income of urban residents" and "per capita net income of rural residents" tends to converge,which means it tends to contract the income gap between urban and rural residents of Gansu Province in the long term. |
| |
| Keywords: | Urban- rural income gap ARMA model convergence analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
