Prediction of the enrollment effects of institutional closure |
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| Authors: | William C Weiler F Scott Wilson |
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| Institution: | (1) University of Minnesota, USA;(2) Canisius College, USA |
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| Abstract: | The expected decline in the number of high school graduates in the United States through the rest of this decade will almost certainly lead to closure of some higher education institutions. An important part of the analysis of the expected effects of institutional closure is estimation of redistribution of students attending the closed school. This paper shows how coefficient estimates from models of enrollment demand can be used to predict the alternative attendance choices of students enrolled at the closed school. The results indicate that predictions differ depending on the estimation method used and that the predictions using some methods are sensitive to subjective assumptions. |
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