| 中国三次产业经济增长与能源消费相互作用的动态特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏子清,周德群,王群伟,岳江君.中国三次产业经济增长与能源消费相互作用的动态特征[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1211-1218. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏子清 周德群 王群伟 岳江君 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京,210016
2. 江苏大学工商管理学院,镇江,212013 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(编号：70873058)；教育部人文社会科学基金（编号：08JA630041）；南京航空航天大学科研创新群体基金（编号：Y0846-091）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解法，对1980年～2006年中国经济增长与能源消费相互作用的动态特征进行系统分析， 并进一步探讨了相互冲击时各自的贡献率和重要程度。研究结果表明：①我国三次产业经济增长与能源消费之间不存在长期稳定的均衡关系，第一产业和第三产业能源消费对经济发展的累积效应是负的，不利于其快速发展，而且这两个产业经济增长对能源消费的正向影响作用不显著，第二产业经济发展和能源消费之间具有正向影响；②短期内，三次产业经济对自身冲击的贡献率保持在94%以上，能源消费对经济增长的贡献率并不高；③现阶段，我国在继续强调优化产业结构和能源消费结构，提高能源利用效率的同时，关键是建立和完善能源需求的安全保障体系，以合适的价格保证中国能源需求，减弱能源对经济增长的“瓶颈”作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消费 经济增长 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 |
The Dynamic Features of the Interaction between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China |
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| WEI Ziqing,ZHOU Dequn,WANG Qunwei and YUE Jiangjun.The Dynamic Features of the Interaction between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China[J].Resources Science,2009,31(7):1211-1218. |
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| Authors: | WEI Ziqing ZHOU Dequn WANG Qunwei and YUE Jiangjun |
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| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic relationship and interaction between economic growth and energy consumption in the three industries, so as to seek for approaches to harmonize the contradictions between economic growth and energy consumption in China accordingly. By using the Vector Auto-regression Model, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Method, the dynamic interaction between economic growth and energy consumption in the three industries is systematically analyzed during the period of 1980-2006 in China. Furthermore, the contribution rates as well as the significance of economic growth and energy consumption in the three industries are investigated respectively. The results show that there is no long-term equilibrium between economic growth and energy consumption in the three industries in China. The accumulation effect of energy consumption in the primary industry and tertiary industry to the economic development is negative, which can hinder the fast development of economy. And there is no obvious positive effect in economic growth to energy consumption in both industries. In addition, economic growth in the second industry has positive influence on energy consumption. However, the positive relations between economic growth and energy consumption of the second industry are not a long-term equilibrium. In the short term, the contribution rate of economic growth in the tertiary industry to the self impact maintains above 94%, while the contribution rate of energy consumption to economic growth is not high. In other words, energy consumption can not effectively promote economic growth. Finally, based on the above research on dynamic features of economic growth and energy consumption in the three major industries of China, corresponding policies are recommended. At present stage, the optimization of industrial structure and energy consumption structure as well as the enhancement of energy utilization efficiency should be emphasized. Meanwhile, it is crucial to establish and perfect security system for energy demand, in order to meet domestic energy demand with appropriate prices and weaken the restriction of the negative impact of energy consumption to economic growth in China. The study provides a theoretical basis for the accurate understanding of the impact effect and transmission mechanism between economic growth and energy consumption in China. Reasonable planning of energy utilization and industrial structure adjustment and long-term energy policy as well as industrial policy are provided. |
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| Keywords: | Energy consumption Economic growth VAR Model Impulse response function Variance decomposition |
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