Sudden Infant Death or Murder? A Royal Confusion About Probabilities |
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| Authors: | Sesardic Neven |
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| Institution: | Department of Philosophy, Lingnan University, Hong Kong |
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| Abstract: | In this article I criticize the recommendations of some prominentstatisticians about how to estimate and compare probabilitiesof the repeated sudden infant death and repeated murder. Theissue has drawn considerable public attention in connectionwith several recent court cases in the UK. I try to show thatwhen the three components of the Bayesian inference are carefullyanalyzed in this context, the advice of the statisticians turnsout to be problematic in each of the steps. - 1 Introduction
- 2Setting the Stage: Bayes's Theorem
- 3 Prior Probabilities ofSingle SIDS and Single Homicide
- 4 Prior Probabilities of theRecurrence of SIDS and Homicide
- 5 Likelihoods of Double SIDSand Double Homicide
- 6 Posterior Probabilities of Double SIDSand Double Homicide
- 7 Conclusion
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