| 基于GM的图书需求预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周建良.基于GM的图书需求预测模型研究[J].鸡西大学学报,2007,7(3):92-94. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周建良 |
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| 作者单位： | 丽水职业技术学院机电信息分院,浙江·丽水,323000 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先根据图书需求预测的特点,阐述了灰预测模型的基本理论和预测方法,并用它进行了图书预期借阅量的预测。然后考虑到未来情况的突变,利用专家组对预测得到的预期借阅量进行了调整。在此基础上,结合现有图书库存量和灰预测得到的预期借阅率,共同得出预期图书的建议购买量,并由此组成了预期图书的建议采购方案。实践证明,这种方案是有效的。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰预测模型 借阅量 借阅率 采购方案 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-6758（2007）03-0092-3 |
Research and System Realization Based on GM Book Demand Forecast Model |
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| Zhou Jianliang.Research and System Realization Based on GM Book Demand Forecast Model[J].JOurnal of Jixi University:comprehensive Edition,2007,7(3):92-94. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Jianliang |
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| Institution: | Zhou Jianliang |
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| Abstract: | First according to the characteristic of book demand forecast, this paper elaborates the elementary theory and the forecast method of Cray Model (GM), and forecasts the anticipated book borrowing amount. Then considering the possible sudden change of future situation, he expected borrowing amount was adjusted according to the expert group' s idea. In this foundation, according to the present book stock and the anticipated borrowing rate, the book purchasing amount was obtained and the procurement scheme of advising. From this the anticipated books suggested purchasing plan was composed. The practice proves the efficient of this plan. |
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| Keywords: | the Gray Forecast Model(GM) borrowing amount borrowing rate procurement scheme |
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