| 城市用水量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵新华,田一梅,陈春芳.城市用水量预测研究[J].天津大学学报(英文版),2001,7(1):21-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵新华 田一梅 陈春芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学建筑工程学院, |
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| 基金项目： | Natural Science Foundation of China!
(No.598780 30 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据城市用水负荷的变化规律 ,采用时间序列分析法 ,建立了用水短期负荷预测的三角函数模型 ,并给出了节假日负荷及突发事件负荷的预测方法 ,同时 ,在微机上开发了软件 .通过实例计算 ,效果良好 ,精度较高 ,可应用于供水输配系统日常的生产调度 ,为实现供水输配系统在线优化调度奠定基础
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| 关 键 词： | 供水 短期负荷预测 时间序列分析 |
RESEARCH ON MUNICIPAL WATER DEMANDS FORECAST |
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| ZHAO Xin-hua,TIAN Yi-mei,CHEN Chun-fang.RESEARCH ON MUNICIPAL WATER DEMANDS FORECAST[J].Transactions of Tianjin University,2001,7(1):21-25. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xin-hua TIAN Yi-mei CHEN Chun-fang |
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| Abstract: | Based on the changing law of municipal water demand,a trigonometric function model for short-term water demand forecast is established using the time-series analysis approach.The method for forecasting water demand during holidays and under unexpected events is also presented.Meanwhile,a computer software is developed.Through actual application,this method performs well and has high accuracy,so it can be applied to the daily operation of a water distribution system and lay a foundation for on-line optimal operation. |
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| Keywords: | water supply short-term demand forecast time-series analysis |
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