| 丽水市电力消费与经济增长的协整、波动分析（1980—2008） |
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| 引用本文： | 周爱飞,赖碎科.丽水市电力消费与经济增长的协整、波动分析（1980—2008）[J].丽水学院学报,2009,31(5):37-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周爱飞 赖碎科 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中共青田县委党校,浙江青田,323900
2. 青田县统计局,浙江青田,323900 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于误差修正模型（ECM）、Granger因果检验、H—P滤波、Census X12季节调整等计量模型和方法，剖析了丽水市电力消费与经济增长之间的内在变化特征、规律，结果表明：丽水市电力消费与经济增长之间存在长期协整关系，并且存在由电力消费到经济增长的单向Granger因果关系；丽水市电力消费与经济增长之间存在着共同趋势、共同波动的特征，电力消费的波谷（峰）要比经济增长的波谷（峰）要提前1年，2006年以后，电力消费增长呈现稳中有降趋势；丽水市GDP增长的典型特征是后半程发力，2001年以后，GDP均在第三季度达到峰值。最后针对丽水市就如何加快产业结构调整，推动产业转型升级，促进电力与经济协调发展，给出了建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 丽水市 电力消费 协整 波动 误差修正模型 Granger因果关系 |
An Analysis on Co-integration and Fluctuation of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Lishui(1980-2008) |
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| Zhou Aifei,Lai Shuike.An Analysis on Co-integration and Fluctuation of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Lishui(1980-2008)[J].Journal of Lishui University,2009,31(5):37-43. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Aifei Lai Shuike |
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| Institution: | Zhou Aifei, Lai Shuike ( 1.The CPC School ofQingtian, Qingtian Zhejiang 323900, China; 2. Bureau of Statistics of Qingtian, Qingtian Zhejiang 323900, China ) |
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| Abstract: | Based on Error Correction Mod el （ECM）, Granger-Causality Test, Hodrick -Prescott （H-P）and Census X12 techniques,the variation feature a,d rule between the electricity consumption and economic growth in Lishui are studied.The result shows that the long-term co-integration between the electricity consumption and economic growth is verified while the unidirectional Granger Causality is running from electricity consumption to GDP growth;there is co-integration and co-fluctuation between electricity consumption and economic growth in Lishui while the trough （crest）of electricity consumption is one year earlier. The electricity consumption growth trend has steadily decreased after 2006. GDP growth is quick in the half year,specially all of the peaks of GDP growth in the third quarter after 2001 ,which is the typical feature of GDP growth in Lishui. Finally,the paper gives some suggestions on how to accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and enhance the harmonious development between consumption and economic growth in Lishui. |
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| Keywords: | Lishui City electricity consumption co-integration fluctuation ECM Granger-causality |
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