| 中国粮食生产对气候资源波动响应的敏感性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢云.中国粮食生产对气候资源波动响应的敏感性分析[J].资源科学,1999,21(6):13-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢云 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学资源与环境科学系,北京,100875 |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化使我国气候资源的波动亦发生相应变化,考虑到粮食生产对气候资源的依赖性较强,定量描述粮食生产对气候资源波动响应的敏感程度,对于理解全球气候变化背景下,粮食生产对气候变化的响应具有重要意义,同时也是气候变化影响评价和响应对策研究的重要内容之一。对此本文通过定义敏感性指数和气候影响程度指数,初步探讨了我国粮食生产对气候资源波动响应的敏感性,以及气候的影响程度。结果表明,我国粮食生产对气候资源响应的敏感地区主要分布在某些气候边缘地区,如水热年际变率较大地区,气候对粮食生产的影响程度北方强于南方,并且随着技术水平的不断提高,影响程度逐渐减弱。因此针对气候变化开展的响应对策研究,应考虑地区自然资源和经济水平的差异
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食生产 气候资源波动 敏感性 气候产量 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588(1999)06-0013-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998年12月20 |
ANALYSIS OF SENSITIVITY OF CROP YIELDS TO CLIMATE RESOURCE FUNCTION IN CHINA |
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| XIE Yun.ANALYSIS OF SENSITIVITY OF CROP YIELDS TO CLIMATE RESOURCE FUNCTION IN CHINA[J].Resources Science,1999,21(6):13-17. |
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| Authors: | XIE Yun |
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| Abstract: | Crop yields depend on climate resource so greatly that it is very important to study the response and adaptation of crop yields to climate resource fluctuation methematically.There is high climatic fluctuation in China which affects substantially grain production.According to analytical results of grain yield changes and relationship between grain yield and influencing economic and natural factors,this paper gives the indices of climate resource response and determination to analysis the sensitivity and the degree of climatic determination of crop yield in China.The index of climatic resource response is the ratio of the difference of climatic yield to the difference of climatic potential productivity,indicating the sensitivity degree of grain system to the fluctuation of climatic resource.The index of climatic resource determination is the ratio of the climatic yield to the economic yield,indicating the degree of economic factors affecting the grain production.The paper compares the methods of Cobb Douglas Production Function and time sequence to calculate the economic yield (trend yield),and selected the time sequence method at last.The results showed that the sensitive region of crop yields to climatic resource fluctuation is in the transitional area of the climatic zone where the climatic factor such as annual fluctuation of temperature or precipitation is relative high.The degree of climatic determination is higher in northern China than that in southern China,and it decreases with the development of the productivity and technology.The adaptation studies of response to climate change should consider the differences of climatic resource and economic level in different regions. |
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| Keywords: | Crop yields Climate resource fluctuation Sensitivity Climate yield |
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