| 新兴产业技术融合方向预测：方法及实证 |
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| 引用本文： | 王宏起,夏凡,王珊珊.新兴产业技术融合方向预测：方法及实证[J].科学学研究,2020,38(6):1009-1017. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王宏起 夏凡 王珊珊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 哈尔滨理工大学;2. ; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;教育部人文社会科学研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 技术融合已成为新兴产业技术创新重要趋势与必然选择，准确把握未来技术融合方向对新兴产业创新机会把握、技术融合创新决策具有重要意义。在专利IPC共现网络构建与产业已有技术融合状态分析的基础上，综合考虑多技术领域之间相互作用对技术融合的影响，设计基于链路预测Katz指标的技术融合方向预测方法；通过对中国电动汽车产业的实证，发现该产业技术融合从早期多领域广泛融合转向特定领域深入融合，未来技术融合将向智能化与网联化等方向不断深入。本研究可为新兴产业技术管理、创新规划与政策制定提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 新兴产业 技术融合 方向预测 IPC共现 Katz指标 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-10 |
Forecast on Technological Fusion Direction of Emerging Industries: Method and Empirical Research |
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| Abstract: | Technological fusion has become an important trend and the inevitable choice of technology innovation for emerging industries. It is of great significance for emerging industries to accurately grasp the future direction of technological fusion in order to catch innovation opportunities and make innovation decisions. Based on the construction of patent IPC co-occurrence network and the analysis of existing industry’s technological fusion state, comprehensively considering the effects of multi-domain interactions on technological fusion, this paper proposes a direction forecast method by using the Katz index of link prediction. Through the empirical study of China’s electric vehicle industry, it is found that this industry’s technological fusion has transformed from multi-domain fusion in earlier stage into nowadays deeply fusing within specific fields, and presents the future technological fusion towards intelligentization and networking. This study may provide a reference to technology managing, innovation planning and policy-making of emerging industries. |
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