| 基于信息熵的江苏省耕地安全系统演化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李春华,李宁,史培军,吴吉东.基于信息熵的江苏省耕地安全系统演化分析[J].资源科学,2008,30(1):43-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李春华 李宁 史培军 吴吉东 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京,100875;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京,100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目：“沙尘暴源地下垫面沙尘致灾因子脆弱性评估及风险贡献”（编号：40771008）;科技部“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目：“综合风险防范关键技术研究与示范-综合风险防分类与评价技术”（编号：2006BAD20801）. |
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| 摘 要： | 基于耕地安全系统理论和耗散结构理论，构建了耕地安全系统演化分析的指标体系，建立了评估耕地安全系统演化的量化模型。应用该模型纵向评价了江苏省1998年～2004年耕地安全系统演化状况。研究发现：①耕地安全系统变化的社会经济压力熵和支持型熵变化明显，数量变化熵由正熵演变为负熵，质量变化熵接近于0，生态环境变化熵表现为波动状态，系统总熵变由正变为负；②耕地安全系统熵流的发展度和协调度差异显著，数量变化和质量变化发展度处于发展的高级阶段并且趋于下降，生态环境发展度由中级发展状态发展到高级发展状态，处于上升阶段。就协调度而言，数量变化和质量变化比较平稳，生态变化波动较大。协调侧重度也表现不一，数量变动协调度由强社会经济压力型变为强支持型，质量变化协调度由中等支持型变为中等压力型，生态变化协调度由中等社会经济压力型变为强支持型。评价结果表明：江苏省耕地安全系统发展目标逐渐明确、有序度不断增强；耕地安全系统的健康、有序水平不断提高，协调能力不断增强，系统活力有待改善。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地安全系统 耗散结构理论 熵变 发展度 协调度 江苏 信息熵 江苏省 耕地 安全系统 演化分析 Information Entropy based Jiangsu Province System Security Cultivated Land 改善 协调能力 水平 有序度 健康 增强 发展目标 结果 中等社会 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2008）01-0043-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-04-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-06-17 |
Evolution of Cultivated Land Security System in Jiangsu Province based on Information Entropy |
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| LI Chun-hu,LI Ning,SHI Pei-jun and WU Ji-dong.Evolution of Cultivated Land Security System in Jiangsu Province based on Information Entropy[J].Resources Science,2008,30(1):43-51. |
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| Authors: | LI Chun-hu LI Ning SHI Pei-jun and WU Ji-dong |
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| Abstract: | The Cultivated Land Security System comprises natural and socioeconomic subsystems.The direction of system evolution is often determined by economic value and benefits of the system's outputs,which cannot fully describe the flows of substances,energy,information and population.Based on dissipative structure theory and cultivated land security system(CLSS) theory,the indicator system for evaluating cultivated land development,and the appraisal model for measuring various material flows in cultivated land security system were set up.Furthermore,the annual-based and indicator-based information entropies were obtained in CLSS.Three types of information entropy,including quantity change entropy,quality change entropy and environmental change entropy were calculated by annual-based information entropy to analyze the order and complexity of CLSS.The weights of indicators evaluating CLSS were calculated and the index scores of CLSS were calculated by standardization values of indicators.Index values of cultivated land security system could be applied to identify the development level and degree of harmony of CLSS.Employing the measuring method,the progress of cultivated land security system development in Jiangsu from 1998 to 2004 was described.The results show that the pressuring entropy and supporting entropy concerning cultivated land quantity,quality and eco-environment change violently,with features of entropy change from positive to negative in cultivated land quantity,input-output equilibrium in quality and fluctuation in eco-environment.The total entropy of cultivated land security was increasing firstly and then decreasing from 1998 to 2004,indicating the increased degree of order of CLSS.The development and harmonious degree of CLSS has a significant difference.The development degree of quality and quantity ranks the advanced level with a decreasing trend,while the eco-environment development changes from intermediate to advanced level.As far as the harmonious degree is concerned,the minor change of quantity and quality harmonious degree contrasts to the obvious oscillation of eco-environmental harmonious degree.The leaning harmonious degree of the quantity change varies from strong socioeconomic pressure to strong capability and the leaning harmonious degree of the quality changes from intermediate supporting to intermediate pressure,and the leaning harmonious degree of the eco-environment changes from intermediate socioeconomic pressure to strong supporting.The result of analyzing entropy flow and development and harmonious degree means that the healthy and orderly level of CLSS in Jiangsu has increased,and the coordinating capability has been improved simultaneously. |
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| Keywords: | Cultivated land security system Dissipative structure theory Entropy change Degree of development Degree of harmony Jiangsu Province |
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