| 漳河水库流域降雨序列变异点分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王玉梅,胡小梅,郑国,陈崇德.漳河水库流域降雨序列变异点分析[J].长江工程职业技术学院学报,2011,28(2):9-11,19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王玉梅 胡小梅 郑国 陈崇德 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖北省信息工程学校,湖北 荆门,448000
2. 湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北 荆门,448156 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据漳河水库流域1963-2008年降雨资料,采用Mann-Kendall参数秩次相关检验法对其未来变化趋势和变异点进行了分析,结果表明：（1）在显著性水平α=0.05下,漳河水库流域年降雨量总体上呈缓慢下降的变化趋势;（2）降雨量的显著变化点在1995年,以1995年为分界线,前后两个系列的水文统计特征值具有明显差异,已经不符合＂一致性＂的要求;（3）流域地区1月和7月的降雨量变化趋势的随机性成份很大,应采取相应对策和措施,以应对未来可能出现的干旱或暴雨洪涝等自然灾害;（4）流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化。
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| 关 键 词： | Mann-Kendall法 有序聚类 降雨量变化趋势 漳河水库流域 |
Analysis of Sequence Variation Point of Rainfall in Zhanghe Reservoir Basin |
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| WANG Yu-mei,HU Xiao-mei,ZHENG Guo,CHEN Chong-de.Analysis of Sequence Variation Point of Rainfall in Zhanghe Reservoir Basin[J].Journal of Changjiang Engineering Vocational College,2011,28(2):9-11,19. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yu-mei HU Xiao-mei ZHENG Guo CHEN Chong-de |
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| Institution: | 1.Hubei Information Engineering School,Jingmen 448000,China; 2.Zhanghe Engineering Administration Bureau of Hubei Province,Jingmen 448156,China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of annual rainfall from 1963 to 2008 in Zhanghe Reservoir basin and its variation tendency,as well as variation point is analysed by using Mann-Kendall parameter related inspection.The result shows that the annual rainfall generally has a slow decline whenα=0.5; the significant change point is in 1995 as a dividing line and eigenvalues of the two series of hydrological statistics have obvious differences;rainfall variation in January and July has great randomness, so countermeasures should be taken to prevent such natural disasters as drought and flood; and more frequent human activities have resulted in great changes in underlaying surface conditions. |
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| Keywords: | Mann-Kendall method ordered cluster variation of rainfall Zhanghe Reservoir basin |
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