| 病虫灾成灾面积的ARMA模型的分析及应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李淑娟,赵立纯,黄玉洁.病虫灾成灾面积的ARMA模型的分析及应用[J].鞍山师范学院学报,2014(6):1-5. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李淑娟 赵立纯 黄玉洁 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 辽宁师范大学 数学学院，辽宁 大连116029; 鞍山师范学院 数学与信息科学学院，辽宁 鞍山114007
2. 鞍山师范学院 数学与信息科学学院,辽宁 鞍山,114007 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 分析基于气象等因素对病虫灾成灾面积的影响,建立病虫灾成灾面积的时间序列模型.利用湖北省病虫灾成灾面积数据对模型进行平稳化处理,得到确定的ARMA模型,并用其对病虫灾成灾面积进行预测,为病虫害的预测预报提供了理论依据.
|
| 关 键 词： | ARMA模型 病虫灾 成灾面积 预测 |
The Analysis and of Insects Plague Area Based on the ARMA Model |
| |
| LI Shujuan,ZHAO Lichun,HUANG Yujie.The Analysis and of Insects Plague Area Based on the ARMA Model[J].Journal of Anshan Teachers College,2014(6):1-5. |
| |
| Authors: | LI Shujuan ZHAO Lichun HUANG Yujie |
| |
| Institution: | LI Shujuan ,ZHAO Lichun, HUANG Yujie ( 1. School of Mathematics ,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian Liaoning 116029, China; 2. School of Mathematics ,Anshan Normal University ,Anshan Liaoning 114007 ,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Considering meteorological factors etc,a time series model of insects afflicted area is built. The stationary process of the model is studied using the data of insects afflicted area in Hubei province,and the corresponding ARMA model is determined to predict the insects afflicted area. The paper may provide the basis for the prevention and control of pests. |
| |
| Keywords: | ARMA model Insects plague Afflicted area Prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
