| 用CIA方法对技术预见模式的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 任海英,杨琪.用CIA方法对技术预见模式的探讨[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2009,30(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 任海英 杨琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京工业大学,经济与管理学院,北京,100124 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，北京市科委科技计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学合理的技术预见活动变得越来越重要.CIA(Cross-Impact Analysis,交叉影响分析)是一种充分考虑事件之间相互影响的技术预见方法.它通过合理组织相关领域的专家来实现对事件集合、事件初始状态和事件之间相互影响的估计.依据以上数据和资料.在一定算法的基础上,模拟事件的发生情况,预测事件的发展趋势,并判断事件的重要程度.回顾了CIA的发展历史.探讨了其最新发展动态.并在此基础上提出一个基于CIA的技术预见模式.
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| 关 键 词： | 技术预测 技术预见 CIA(交叉影响分析) |
Analysis of Technology Foresight Models Based on CIA |
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| REN Haiying,YANG Qi.Analysis of Technology Foresight Models Based on CIA[J].Science of Science and Management of S.& T.,2009,30(1). |
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| Authors: | REN Haiying YANG Qi |
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| Institution: | Economics and Management School;Beijing University of Technology;Beijing 100124;China |
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| Abstract: | Scientific and reasonable technology foresight has attracted much attention.CIA(Cross-Impact Analysis) is a foresight method that considers cross impacts among events thoroughly.As events,initial conditions and cross impacts are obtained from experts through careful organization,such foresight activities as occurrence simulation,trend forecasting and importance evaluation can be performed according to CIA procedures.This paper reviews the history of CIA and its latest development.Then a technology foresight... |
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| Keywords: | technology forecasting technology foresight CIA |
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